Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

At this moment, the latest predictions show about at 15% chance we'll be hit, with the biggest chance, 11%, for Thursday night to Friday morning. These are not such awful odds. But we all know that hurricane landfall is a very inexact science. The current track gets near enough to the track of Charlie that the poor folks on the west coast may be getting hit twice in a fortnight.

Hurricane Frances is already category four, which is pretty nasty, and they have tended to get stronger as they run toward land. Unless the prediciton changes radically, I guess I'll be putting up shutters tomorrow morining.

Meanwhile, on campus, the Associate Dean says:

To: Students
From: Stephen J. Schnably, Associate Dean

The University is currently monitoring the progress of Hurricane Frances. All classes remain on regular schedule.

a. When will we be notified of any decision to close the University?

We expect that the University central administration will make a decision tomorrow whether (and when) to close the University, including the Law School. The University is currently putting up some shutters, but that is only a precautionary measure necessitated by the large number of shutters the University has. No decision to close the University has been made at this time.

b. How will faculty, staff, and students know if a decision is made to close the University?

The Dean of Students Office number will serve as the Law School's hotline (305-284-4551). In addition, if the University announces a closing, we will —

* send an e-mail to students
* post it on the information monitors in Subway, the library, and the student lounge.
* post it on the law school web page
* post it on signs around the Law School campus.
The University has a hotline at 305-284-5151. You can also check this number, but information specific to the Law School will be at the Dean of Students number, 305-284-4551.

c. What do I need to do now?

The University does not provide shelter for non-resident students in a hurricane. Double-check your own personal preparedness plan for a hurricane. Useful sources of information include:

• The National Hurricane Center website, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
• The Miami-Dade Emergency Management Office — http://www.co.miami-dade.fl.us/oem/hurricane/home.asp
• The University's Hurricane Preparedness Website — http://www.miami.edu/prepare/. This page has many helpful links (check http://www.miami.edu/UMH/CDA/UMH_Main/1,1770,19025-1;20070-3,00.html), including the Broward County emergency management office.

cc: Faculty, Administration, and Staff

On the home front, my older child's school announced at a special assembly that it will be closing for Thursday and Friday. The students duly cheered. Update: All the K-12 schools in town are going to be closed Thursday and Friday. Sort of like Florida's answer to snow days, I guess.

But my committee meeting for tomorrow remains stubbornly uncanceled. If it goes, I may cheer too.

Watching a hurricane advance in your general direction is a bit like having a bit part in a real-life monster movie. There was panic buying at the local grocery store yesterday. Water, paper plates, plasticware, canned staples were gone or flying off the shelves.

The latest bulletin from UM says,

The University continues to carefully monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances. UM's Crisis Decision Team met at 10:30 a.m. today and determined that the University expects to be open for the remainder of the week. We will conduct business as usual, and all classes, events, and clinical activities remain on a regular schedule. The Crisis Decision Team expects to meet daily this week, and you will be advised immediately if there are any changes to schedules.

Some precautionary measures are being undertaken today and tomorrow, including installing hurricane shutters on certain buildings on the Coral Gables campus. This is standard procedure and is no cause for alarm.

Well, actually, there might be cause for mild alarm, as this looks like a nasty one. On the other hand, it's still far away, has plenty of time to turn north, and indeed, the lastest forecast track is no longer aiming dead at us, although landfall remains a very very inexact science and we here in Miami are still within the cone of probability.

If it hits, though, it's unlikely to do so before early Saturday. Now if we could just find some plastic forks….