Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

Free Country Datum IVa

It seems the NYC cops may not just be sweeping up bikers and holding them in pens, but photographers, tourists and grandmothers too. Gotta watch out for them public library users!

(The NYCLU is working to try to sort out the mess.)

Does this incident undermine or support Robert Waldman's suggestion that,

I recall Michael Froomkin's null hypothesis that the USA is still a free country and the proposed test of this hypothesis “The Republican national convention and the protests it inpires seem like a decent field test of the hypothesis that it’s still a free country.”

I'd say the evidence so far tends to support the alternative but is statistically insignificant because of the possibility of a heteroskedastic disturbance term (that is this “commanding officer might be mentally disturbed).

Posted in Civil Liberties | 1 Comment

Frances: Forecasters Cannot Agree

The National Weather Service and the news give us the consensus track, and a large bubble of uncertainty around it. That forecast, though, is built out of many different models. Often those models mostly agree. Not this time:

hurricane.gif

Source: Boat U.S. Hurricane Center.

Posted in Miami | Comments Off on Frances: Forecasters Cannot Agree

Meme Time

William Saletan in Slate:

But the important thing isn't the falsity of the charges, which Republicans continue to repeat despite press reports debunking them. The important thing is that the GOP is trying to quash criticism of the president simply because it's criticism of the president. The election is becoming a referendum on democracy.

In a democracy, the commander in chief works for you. You hire him when you elect him. You watch him do the job. If he makes good decisions and serves your interests, you rehire him. If he doesn't, you fire him by voting for his opponent in the next election.

Not every country works this way. In some countries, the commander in chief builds a propaganda apparatus that equates him with the military and the nation. If you object that he's making bad decisions and disserving the national interest, you're accused of weakening the nation, undermining its security, sabotaging the commander in chief, and serving a foreign power—the very charges Miller leveled tonight against Bush's critics.

Are you prepared to become one of those countries?

Personally, I'm waiting for the Democrats to start calling the Republican convention a “hate fest”.[1] But I also don't think the uncharacteristically venomous reactions of usually sober bloggers like Kevin Drum, Matthew Yglasias are all that helpful. I prefer the more nuanced approach of Michael Bérubé.

Update: Yglesias replies (generically):

So a few of the posts I've written lately have been criticized from one quarter or another as “unhelpful.” Either they're too shrill, too elitist, or too whatever. That's all probably true, but to raise a point I've made before, even though I would like to see John Kerry win the election, I'm not employed by the Kerry campaign, nor is the purpose of this site to help Kerry win the election. The purpose of this site is to say what I honestly think about stuff. I'm not going to go all Kausy and become obsessed with random piddling critique's of Johnny K., but if my work sounds elitist that's because I'm an elitist, and that's just the way it goes.

Hmm. The post I picked on said, in full, “Could Liddy Dole have written a speech more calculated to make me despise her? No, she couldn't.” I guess that is elitist in one sense of that word, but not in any sense I would brag about myself.

Note that my original point was that usually Ygelesias is a good read. But he kind of lost it, amidst writing about chasing women in NY. Get him a girlfriend, he'll be fine again.

1 [Update2: Well, that didn't take very long, did it?]

Posted in Politics: US: 2004 Election | 4 Comments

11pm Frances Report

We have a hurricane watch along with much of the bottom half of the Florida coast.

Offical odds for a hit on Miami remain almost unchanged, with the bulls-eye still just enough north of here to make the misery go elsewhere. Our cumulative chance of a strike has risen to 20%, but that's only because the new tables project further out into Saturday. The peak period remans 11% between 8PM Thursday and 8AM Friday. Meanwhile, however, the National Weather Service's discussion of the track, which has been dominated for two days by puzzlement as to why the various different models diverge so much, has taken on a new note.

I don't know why the National Hurricane Center forecasters still have to WRITE THEIR ANALYSIS IN ALL CAPS just like they probably did in the days of the telegraph, but here is the 11pm discussion of the meteorology? I have taken the liberty of adding bold to the parts that caught my eye:

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154 KT…OR 177 MPH…AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT…EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION…FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT 120 KT…WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER…THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130 HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS. THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS…COMPARED TO 18Z SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA…APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW. HOWEVER…THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W…OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM… THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO…00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST…WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK…AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW…WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z ADVISORY…NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER…WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANCES…I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.

That would be…this way.

Posted in Miami | 2 Comments

Battening Down the Hatches

It's official:

The University of Miami's Coral Gables and Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science campuses will be closed for classes on both Thursday and Friday, September 2 and 3.

Only essential employees are required to report to work at the Coral Gables and Rosenstiel School campuses.

And I am not an “essential employee”. So I don't have to come in. But I'm on leave, so I don't have to come in anyway. Wait, there's more…

All academic buildings must be vacated by noon on Thursday. All non-essential buildings will be closed and secured at noon on Thursday.

Translation: If I come in they may kick me out of my office?

A decision on the UM-FSU football game, currently scheduled for Monday, September 6, is expected to be made on Thursday.

If they cancel a football game, then you know it's really serious. Update: They postponed it.

The following Coral Gables campus facilities will be open on Thursday until 5 p.m.:

* Food Court (and all Residential College Dining Rooms)
* Richter Library
* University Bookstore
* Student Health Center
* Wellness Center
* University Center
* Starbucks

I guess the people at Starbucks are essential employees.

Posted in Miami | 1 Comment

Democratic Centralism in the Republican Party

Kevin Drum:

I don't really care about immigration policy all that much, but Colorado Representative Tom Tancredo does. So he tried to get his views adopted in the Republican party platform.

When that failed, he decided to see if he could gin up a floor fight at the convention. This was more political theater than anything else, but even so he ran into an unusual problem:

There are two ways to bring a matter to the floor: One is to convince six state delegations to support the motion for a floor debate—a virtual impossibility, Tancredo realized; the other is to get 19 members of the platform committee to support bringing a matter to the floor. This latter route seemed doable to Tancredo, save for one problem: The congressman couldn't find out who, exactly, was on the platform committee. Running the platform process with all the discipline and secrecy that's come to be expected from the Bush White House, the RNC, citing security concerns, refused to divulge the identities of the handpicked delegates who served on the platform committee—even, in some cases, to other members of the platform committee.

The names of the platform committee members are a secret? For “security reasons”? Has the party leadership gone completely insane? (That's a rhetorical question, of course. No need to answer.)

And this is democracy, how exactly?

Posted in Law: Criminal Law | 3 Comments