Category Archives: 2022 Election

More Evidence for My Claim About Polls and Support for Biden (and Democrats)

Regular readers were not on board with my suggestion as to why Democrats beat the polls.  Well, here’s some more evidence for my hypothesis–‘Right track’ polling numbers jump following GOP’s lackluster midterm showing:

As the ‘red wave’ narrative took hold in the Beltway, many prognosticators cited the country’s abysmal right track/wrong track numbers as evidence Democrats were destined for heavy losses.

It’s true that, heading into Election Day, the numbers were spectacularly bad, according to Civiqs tracking of the issue. Just 21% of registered voters said the country was on the “right track” compared to 68% saying it was on the “wrong track.”

But the assumption among myriad old-school analysts that all the negativity would specifically pull Democrats under turned out to be incorrect.

In fact, everyone, including Democratic voters and leaners, was dissatisfied with the state of the country, and they didn’t necessarily fault Democrats for the sorry state of affairs.

[…]

Since Election Day, right track numbers have made a small-but-notable rebound, from 21% just before Election Day to 28% now. Wrong track numbers have similarly fallen 5 points in the same time period, from 68% to 63%. Here’s Civiqs tracking of right track/wrong track views over the past 12 months.

It’s a smallish group, but big enough to have provided the margin of victory in the recent election: Some of the ‘wrong track’ people were, like me, primarily concerned about MAGA madness and the Dobbs decision.

Posted in 2022 Election | 1 Comment

Why Biden & Co Beat the Polls

The conventional wisdom on mid-term elections is that the party in the White House loses seats. How many they lose is supposed to be highly correlated to the incumbent President’s poll numbers.

Yet, Democrats suffered only very modest losses–albeit with large consequences since their majorities were so thin–given that President Biden’s approval number was in the lower 40s, a number that historically suggested greater losses.

I think I can explain at least a big part of that: the polls missed something important. The classic question asks what the voter thinks of President Biden’s job performance. The choices offered are Very Satisfied, Somewhat Satisfied, Somewhat Unsatisfied, and Very Unsatisfied. They’ll usually take a “no opinion/undecided” if you offer it. Critically, the polls don’t ask why voters are unsatisfied.

Commentators assume, based no doubt on experience, that voters unsatisfied with the President are more likely to take it out on the party at election time. The more unsatisfied they are, the worse for the party. That logic fails in the case of Biden because a significant fraction of the unsatisfied voters think he is too moderate or insufficiently aggressive against Republican tactics. Those voters are never going to vote for Republicans. They may stay home, contributing to the extent that turnout matters, but if they do vote, they are going to vote for Democrats, and all the more so if the Democrat on the ticket seems like a real progressive rather than a triangulator.

This group probably shows up in all the polling groups: If you think Biden is not progressive enough, you might nonetheless say say you are “Very Satisfied” on the grounds that at least he’s not the other guy. Or, like me, you might say you are “Somewhat Satisfied” on the grounds that while Biden did some good things, I would have liked much more. I can easily see how some progressives might also say they are Somewhat or Very Dissatisfied to have their high hopes disappointed. Until we poll better, we’ll never know how this breaks down, but I’m certain this group exists, and that while not enormous it’s well sizeable enough to move the needle.

TL/DR: Democrats did better than expected because the way Biden’s approval number is measured ignores the existence of Progressives who wish Biden were different–but are never going to vote for Republicans.

Posted in 2022 Election | 5 Comments

Ballot Saga, Part 3: The Anticlimax

I voted!I went to vote at my local polling place at around 2pm. It was not deserted, but it was nearly empty. As I entered, a lady gave me a form, and asked me to hand it to the poll workers. It showed my time of arrival, and had a blank for when I got to the voter table — which proved to be about 60 seconds later.

I explained my story to the nice lady at the table. She scanned my driver’s license and looked me up in her system. “It’s here!” she said. I thought that meant my vote had miraculously arrived in the 45 minutes between when I last checked and when I turned up. But, no, turned out it meant that it showed they had sent it to me. But, as I explained, although I had returned it, it still was not received. And the system confirmed that too.

At that, they printed out a new ballot receipt for me, handed me the flimsy paper and a large ballot, and off I went to vote it.

I was in and out in under ten minutes, including parking.

The only slightly odd thing about the experience is that every other time I’ve voted, outside the polling place there has been a forest of signs for the various candidates, and multiple often competing campaign workers offering leaflets for their candidates.

This time, there were zero signs and zero people.

Maybe they were all off phoning and texting people: I got three calls and four texts reminding me to vote or asking me to vote for a candidate between 9am and 2pm today. So maybe it’s virtual campaigning now? Probably beats standing in the sun…

Posted in 2022 Election, Florida | Leave a comment

Ballot Saga, Part 2

As of this morning, the Elections Dept. still has not received my ballot.

I was glad therefore to find instructions as to what I should do in the Miami-Dade Voter Information Guide/FAQ. At page 11 is says:

Surrendered at the Polls on Election Day – A voter who prefers to vote in person may surrender a voted or un-voted mail ballot to the voter’s precinct on Election Day. The returned ballot will be marked “canceled” by the election board. A voter who desires to vote in person, but does not return the ballot to the precinct, may vote only under the following conditions:

• The election board confirms the voter’s mail ballot has not been received.
• If the election board cannot determine whether the voter’s mail ballot has been received, the voter may vote a provisional ballot.

Voters cannot vote by submitting their Vote by Mail ballot at their precinct. It must be surrendered.

That seems clear enough: if by tomorrow they don’t have it, go to my polling place, and they will either let me vote, or give me a provisional ballot.

But I’m never going to vote by mail again if I can avoid it–I’m dumping that ballot in a drop box.

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Where’s My Ballot?

I voted by mail seven (7) days ago but the Miami-Dade Department of Elections says it has not received it yet.

I guess I’ll have to keep checking. But if they don’t have it by Tuesday, then what?  A provisional ballot?

You can check your registration and ballot status here, and if you voted by mail, seems like a thing you should do!

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I’ll be on WVUM Friday at 5:30pm

This Friday I’m scheduled to be interviewed on a political discussion program hosted on the U.M. campus station, WVUM 90.5 FM. The interview/discussion is part of a special one-off revival edition of The Monkey House which is part of Homecoming:

The Monkey House is a variety political radio talk show that originally aired from 2017 to 2019 on WVUM 90.5 FM, the University of Miami’s flagship radio station. The show was hosted by UM students Israel Aragon Bravo and Andre Rivero-Guevara, who frequently engaged in down-to-earth conversations on current events with friends, professors, campus leaders, politicians, artists, and other members of the UM/Miami community. Inspired by a DIY ethos, Israel and Andy were known for approaching discussions with candor, an air of levity, and a strong desire to connect with their listeners.

On Friday, Nov 4th, Israel and Andy will be making their one-off comeback ahead of the 2022 Midterms as part of WVUM’s annual Alumni Week events. In this episode, they will be discussing the state of U.S. democracy and some of the most important issues going into next week’s elections.

Joining them in this special discussion is University of Miami professor of law Michael Froomkin, who teaches Administrative Law, AI/Robot Law, and Jurisprudence, and is also known for his coverage of politics and local election recommendations on his personal blog on discourse.net. They will be discussing the ongoing threats to U.S. democracy and the ways it could be improved, as well his paper “Fixing the Senate.”

The show will broadcast on WVUM 90.5 FM this Friday, Nov 4th at 5 pm. The show can also be caught live on the web at wvum.org.

I’m told that my segment should start at 5:30pm.

Posted in 2022 Election, Florida, The Media | Leave a comment