Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

Florida is the Battleground State

Posted on December 17, 2015 by Michael Froomkin

2000px-Electoral_map.svgThe Electoral College Challenge by by Martin Longman at Political Animal paints Florida as key to the next election.

Guess that means a lot of very repetitive TV ads. Good thing I never watch live TV and can fast forward through them all.

Posted in 2016 Election | 8 Comments

Foreseeable

Posted on December 16, 2015 by Michael Froomkin

Chicago data supports effectiveness of predictive policing. But maybe not how you expect:

[T]he number of complaints an officer receives in a certain year predicts whether and how many complaints he or she will have in the following year.1 Over multiple years, the signal becomes even stronger. Officers with a baseline history of one or two complaints in 2011-13 have a 30 percent to 37 percent chance of receiving a complaint in the following two years.2 But repeaters — those with 15 or 20 incidents in the first part of the data set — are almost certain to have a complaint against them in 2014-15.

… Even after controlling for neighborhood, however, individual officers with more complaints in 2011-13 remained more likely to have complaints filed against them in 2014-15.

… [C]omplaints were not only predictive of the number and type of future complaints — they also forecast whether the department would determine misconduct. Officers with 10 or more complaints in early years of the data set were about six times more likely to have a complaint from the last two years sustained against them.

… For all the complexity of policing, there is a clear signal in the data of who the bad actors are and, to a lesser extent, whether they are going to commit misconduct.

Posted in Civil Liberties, Law: Criminal Law | Comments Off on Foreseeable

There is Water in the Glass

Posted on December 12, 2015 by Michael Froomkin

Looking at the information about the climate change agreement coming out of Paris two things seem to emerge: First, this is a more meaningful deal than ever before, and more meaningful than one would have expected two weeks ago. Second, this is not enough to stop global warming, not enough to ensure that we don’t reach the tipping point where the ice caps shrink even faster than they are already doing, not enough to ensure that coastal cities — not least Miami!– will be safe from rising sea levels. The deal may (and if adhered to, likely does) improve the odds some, but since we’re not sure what the odds are, we can’t be sure how much they are improved; it could be a lot, it could be quite little.

So I can’t say the global climate change action glass is half full. But there is water in the glass.

Update: Informed Comment, Paris COP21 will only slow Climate Change: Here’s What’s going to happen to you and your children explains why, even as one recognizes this is progress, it’s still not enough progress. Among other things, however much water there is in the glass, there’s not going to be enough in the ice caps…

Posted in Global Warming | Comments Off on There is Water in the Glass

Purely Hypothetical Questions

Posted on December 10, 2015 by Michael Froomkin

Suppose that one became convinced that a member of the Supreme Court was a racist, or had a bias either in favor of a particular religion or against a particular religious view. Would any of these constitute grounds for impeachment and conviction?

Would your answer to this question turn on whether the views manifested in judicial opinions, or only in in-court colloquies, or only in out-of-court writing or speaking?

Posted in Law: Constitutional Law, Law: The Supremes | 2 Comments

Mark Your Calendar

Posted on December 9, 2015 by Michael Froomkin

Feb. 5-6, Justice John Paul Stevens (Ret.), will be the keynote speaker at the UMiami Law Review Symposium: The Constitution on Campus. The symposium will “explore the recurring conflicts between administering institutions of higher learning and the constitutional rights of students. Panelists will provide an in-depth discussion of students’ due process, free speech, and Internet privacy rights.”

Posted in U.Miami | Comments Off on Mark Your Calendar

Darkness at Noon

Posted on December 7, 2015 by Michael Froomkin

Light is one of Miami’s signature characteristics. And lately we haven’t gotten much.

In Summer we enjoy a Caribbean sun; it can feel like a slap on the head when you step out of the shade. Then there is the Monsoon season, where it rains every afternoon. But in Winter, we are in a temperate Paradise: sunny, warm, bright.

But not this December, at least not so far. We have had unseasonable rain. Heavy rain alternating with blindingly heavy rain, and puddles so big they amount to small ponds. Thunderstorms. Daily. For a week. And the forecast is for it to continue. And when it’s not raining it is cloudy and dark. On Saturday I overslept badly–really badly–because the light I count on to wake me up on weekends never appeared.

I do grasp that many people reading this will be living in places where the sun rises late and sets early this time of year, and experience has taught me that such people are not in the main terribly sympathetic with complaints about our winter weather. But consider that this season is supposed to be our reward for the brutality of an August that usually runs from mid-May to some time in November, and perhaps you will see why I think Nature is not playing fair this year.

Posted in Miami | 2 Comments