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Category Archives: 2016 Election
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I’ve just signed up to phonebank tomorrow afternoon. Although you have to wonder about anyone who will still need a reminder by then: my phone has been ringing off the hook all week with political robocalls, pollsters, and live phonebankers of varying degrees of skill.
By my count Clinton just needs to win one of these, and she wins the electoral college, even if there is a faithless elector in Washington State (or even two), and even if Trump wins New Hampshire.
All of them are very close.
I remember thinking in 1980 that surely there was no way the US would elect Ronald Reagan. I’m never making that mistake again.
As of this writing, RCP polling averages are:
Arizona Trump +4
Colorado Clinton +2.9
Florida Clinton +1.2
North Carolina Trump +0.8
But if I’m wrong that Clinton has Nevada, then Colorado alone isn’t enough, and even taking Arizona alone makes it a 270-270 tie where the faithless elector problem becomes significant. Fortunately, perhaps, the odds of Clinton winning Arizona if she were to lose Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada seem rather low. So maybe the key states are North Caroline and Florida: Trump needs both; Clinton wins with either.
Get your friends and right-thinking family members to vote.