Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

Profile in Courage

You do read some humbling things online. Here's one: t a c i t u s: Failure of nerve.

Impressive as this is essay is, I wonder if the non sequitor with which it concludes is correct: Is it wrong to think that, on average, politicians who have served in the military may be more sensible in their use of force than those for whom combat is an abstraction? And even if that is wrong, does it follow that it's wrong to suspect draft-evaders, again on average, of middle-aged over-compensation?

History is an uncertain guide. For example, both Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon served in the Navy, and both escalated in Vietnam. Clinton had a draft deferment and built a great big military. Current events, however, strongly suggest a conclusion.

Posted in Readings | Comments Off on Profile in Courage

Employment Numbers Demystified

It's good that a little bit of the defict-pumping tax cut is trickling down to working people. What's surprising is not that employment is up, but how little. What's even more surprising is how ineptly the numbers are being reported in the newspapers.

Comes now MaxSpeak to draw a picture and set us all straight. “OH PROMISE ME … has a nice simple picture we can all understand, comparing the jobs the Administration promised its economic plans would create to the jobs actually produced. Worth more than a thousand words, easy.




Reproduced with permission from Max Sawicky.

Posted in Econ & Money | 2 Comments

The Harris Scenario in the Florida Senate Race

Harris turns eyes toward Senate suggests that if Katherine Harris runs for the GOP senate nomination and gets it, her presence on the ticket will energize Democratic voters. There's a lot to that. Being as amazingly inept as she is, she may turn off Republicans too.

But there is a scenario in which she gets elected. It goes like this: the primaries don't have run-offs — whoever gets the most votes wins. The Democratic primary is going to be crowded, and may become ethnicized, with votes split up between one Hispanic (Miami's own, tarnished, Alex Penelas), one Jewish candidate, Rep. Peter Deutsch, one Afro-American, Rep. Alcee Hastings, and several Anglos. If either Penelas or Hastings were to win the nomination, Harris might win the general election.

Hasting's negatives are being Black, unabashedly liberal, and too smart. I've met him. Boy, is he smart. Very, very impressive, but I don't think that will play well upstate.

Penelas's negatives are complex, and not strictly racial: he's widely considered to have sabotaged the Gore campaign in 2000, and there are also allegations of fundraising irregularities. Worst of all, from the point of view of a state-wide election, Penelas said he would not support the operation of the ordinary legal process in the Elian affair.

Just from an electablity perspective, Harris would be an awful candidate for the Republicans, yes. But, don't underestimate the Florida Democrats' ability to nominate an even less electable candidate.

Posted in Florida | 1 Comment

ABC’s The Note Has 18 Things To Say About Howard Dean

It looks increasingly like the two main things between Howard Dean and the Democratic nomination are…his mouth and his temper. Given that a bunch of Democratic candidates have been excoriated for wimpishness (Carter, Dukakis, Mondale, Gore but importantly not Clinton), maybe this is the risk one has to take to have a winner. ABCNEWS.com : The Note, the purveyors and shapers of conventional wisdom, have 18 interesting observations about Dr. Dean. I was especially struck by numbers 8, 9, 14 & 18:

1. Dean will raise more money in the year before the election than anyone else seeking the Democratic nomination, and that historically in the modern era is (with one exception) the iron-clad predictor of who wins in both parties.

2. Beyond money, this year Dean has dominated in message and media, two other fabu things to have.

3. None of the other candidates can overtake Dean in the fourth quarter — they can theoretically do damage to him (although, outside damage with the Chattering Class, we doubt that too), but they can't cripple him. There just aren't enough people paying attention yet.

4. What doesn't kill Howard Dean only makes him stronger.

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Posted in Politics: US | Comments Off on ABC’s The Note Has 18 Things To Say About Howard Dean

The Joy of Filtering

It seems I am not the only one to have modified their link to the Volokh Conspiracy to eliminate the high volume of posts from the most voluable and least interesting conspirator. As of yesterday, the link in the left margin leads you to a Cori-free version. Not to censor, but because that's how I decided I liked to read it.

Posted in Blogs | 2 Comments

John Holbo Deconstructs David Frum

I don't know if this essay by John Holbo [link corrected] deconstructing David Frum's book is right, because I haven't read the book it attacks. (And, if truth be told, I'm especially unwilling to jump to conclusions because I used to know David Frum in college, long ago.) But I will say the Holbo essay is an elegant and very readable piece of writing in itself. Often people who write clearly think clearly too, so I'd bet that if it's wrong, then odds are it is wrong in an interesting way.

“Radical sartorauthoritarianism”? Gotta love it.

Posted in Readings | 2 Comments