Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

The Calm Before the Storm or Non-Storm

The weather is here, and it’s nice right now. A friend has two kids over who have been evacuated from Miami Beach, and they are about the age of our kids, so we took our kids swimming in their pool to keep the them company. We were driven inside by a squall after about 30 minutes, a feeder band passing over we later learned, but that passed quickly and the weather turned nice, if sometimes blustery after that.

This morning I went out first thing to buy more extension cords, since in the course of the construction on our house some of the old ones went walkabout. Streets were nearly empty, but the hardware store, while heavily picked over, was not empty. They still had some batteries, for example; I left them there, since we have many and a generator, but not without a pang, remembering Andrew and those five weeks without electricity — two weeks plus without a candle or a flashlight or a clue (we had literally just moved here from London).

As for Frances, the possibility of anti-climax grows with each hour. I can only hope.

Posted in Miami | 2 Comments

The Press Has a Pulse! AP Does Fact-Checking!

AP, which runs everywhere, did a little fact-checking of Bush's acceptance speech:

Bush Leaves Out Complex Facts in Speech: President Bush's boast of a 30-member-strong coalition in Iraq masked the reality that the United States is bearing the overwhelming share of costs, in lives and troop commitments. And in claiming to have routed most al-Qaida leaders, he did not mention that the big one got away.

Bush's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on Thursday night brought the nation a collection of facts that told only part of the story, hardly unusual for this most political of occasions.

He took some license in telling Americans that Democratic opponent John Kerry “is running on a platform of increasing taxes.”

Kerry would, in fact, raise taxes on the richest 2 percent of Americans as part of a plan to keep the Bush tax cuts for everyone else and even cut some of them more. That's not exactly a tax-increase platform.

And on education, Bush voiced an inherent contradiction, dating back to his 2000 campaign, in stating his stout support for local control of education, yet promising to toughen federal standards that override local decision-making.

“We are insisting on accountability, empowering parents and teachers, and making sure that local people are in charge of their schools,” he said, on one hand. Yet, “we will require a rigorous exam before graduation.”

Bush aggressively defended progress in Afghanistan, too. “Today, the government of a free Afghanistan is fighting terror, Pakistan is capturing terrorist leaders … and more than three-quarters of al-Qaida's key members and associates have been detained or killed. We have led, many have joined, and America and the world are safer.”

Nowhere did Bush mention Osama bin Laden, nor did he account for the replacement of killed and captured al al-Qaida leaders by others.

Bush's address wasn't the only one this week that glossed over some realities.

Vice President Dick Cheney, trying to make Kerry look wobbly on defense, implied in his speech that Kerry would wait until the United States is hit by a foe before hitting back. “He declared at the Democratic convention that he will forcefully defend America after we have been attacked,” Cheney said.

New York Gov. George Pataki echoed Cheney's line of criticism Thursday night.

Kerry said in his convention speech, “Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response.” But he also spoke of pre-emptive action in that address, saying a threat that is “real and imminent” is also a justification for war.

In his keynote address, Sen. Zell Miller attacked Kerry for Senate votes against the Navy F-14D Tomcat fighter and the B-2 bomber the heart of his case that the Democrat has stood against essential weapons systems.

He ignored the fact that Cheney, as defense secretary, canceled the F-14 and submitted a budget scaling back production of the B-2.

Miller also said Kerry has made it clear he “would use military force only if approved by the U.N.,” a stretch of Kerry's position. Kerry told his convention “I will never hesitate to use force when it is required” and “I will never give any nation or international institution a veto over our national security.”

It's fun to see, no doubt for the first time ever, the words “Bush” and “complex facts” in the same headline…

Posted in Politics: US: 2004 Election | 4 Comments

Comedy Central’s ‘Daily Show’ Invites Bush for a Chat

I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere, perhaps because print ads don't appear in the online edition, so at the risk of chewing through a lot of bandwidth here is the quarter-page ad that Comedy Central's Daily Show (the faux news show which does a better job of the news than most serious media) took out in yesterday's New York Times—on the op-ed page.

It's pretty funny.

Update: While you are at it, have a look at this Daily Show 'preview' of the GW Bush convention promotional video. It would be funny if it were not so accurate. If comedy is not yet the only way to speak truth to power, it must surely be the most effective means.

Update2: The New York Post, of all places, reports that:

THE mischievous magnets produced by Comedy Central's “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” have created a sticky situation for the RNC. The “Make Your Own Headlines With the Daily Show Newsmaker” kits were banned from RNC gift bags because they included words like “tranvestite,” “goat,” “dances” and “dumb” as well as “Dubya,” “Rumsfeld” and “Cheney.” The RNC apparently feared the magnets could be used to poke fun at GOP leaders. Comedy Central produced more than 13,000 kits, which they still want to distribute this week. “We were surprised with the RNC's lack of humor,” said a Comedy Central spokeswoman.

'course that was before Zell Miller spoke…

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OK. This Is Serious

UM-FSU football game rescheduled for 8 p.m. Sept. 10.

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Free Country Datum IVa

It seems the NYC cops may not just be sweeping up bikers and holding them in pens, but photographers, tourists and grandmothers too. Gotta watch out for them public library users!

(The NYCLU is working to try to sort out the mess.)

Does this incident undermine or support Robert Waldman's suggestion that,

I recall Michael Froomkin's null hypothesis that the USA is still a free country and the proposed test of this hypothesis “The Republican national convention and the protests it inpires seem like a decent field test of the hypothesis that it’s still a free country.”

I'd say the evidence so far tends to support the alternative but is statistically insignificant because of the possibility of a heteroskedastic disturbance term (that is this “commanding officer might be mentally disturbed).

Posted in Civil Liberties | 1 Comment

Frances: Forecasters Cannot Agree

The National Weather Service and the news give us the consensus track, and a large bubble of uncertainty around it. That forecast, though, is built out of many different models. Often those models mostly agree. Not this time:

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Source: Boat U.S. Hurricane Center.

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