Category Archives: Science/Medicine

Bad News for Florida

Latest study predicts 10°C global warming.

Increased levels of greenhouse gases will have a much greater impact on climate change than previously thought and will lead to a “dramatically different” future, according to the largest ever climate change experiment.

If the predicted levels of greenhouse gases predictions are reached, the ice caps are likely to have melted and Britain will be an average 10°C warmer.

Then again, maybe we've got some time to prepare:

The first results from climate prediction.net show that average temperatures could eventually rise by up to 11°C – albeit after a new global climate pattern has been established over several hundred years, even thousands of years – even if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are limited to twice those found before the industrial revolution.

The results are based on a distributed computer model run as a screen saver:

The experiment, launched in Britain in 2001 on the science page of The Daily Telegraph, has since seen about 100,000 PC users around the world download a special screen saver to run a Met Office computer model to explore a vast range of climate change scenarios.

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Two Optical Illusions: One Smart, One Stupid-Scary

The Dragon Illusion (video) is one super-smart illusion. It uses the way eyes and brain are wired to take advantage of mistaken assumptions:

When we see a solid object rotating, there are all sorts of clues that tell us what is going on, which way it is rotating, etc. The dragon gives us the wrong clues, because we mis-interpret what its shape is. The nose of the dragon appears to be pointing out towards the viewer, but in fact the dragon's head is concave.

The Bush plan to create deficit-cutting bragging rights also tries to take advantage of mistaken assumptions, primarily the one that our goverment wouldn't lie quite this brazenly:

To make Mr. Bush's goal easier to reach, administration officials have decided to measure their progress against a $521 billion deficit they predicted last February rather than last year's actual shortfall of $413 billion.

By starting with the outdated projection, Mr. Bush can say he has already reduced the shortfall by about $100 billion and claim victory if the deficit falls to just $260 billion.

But White House budget planners are not stopping there. Administration officials are also invoking optimistic assumptions about rising tax revenue while excluding costs for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as trillions of dollars in costs that lie just outside Mr. Bush's five-year budget window. …

“I've been watching this more than 30 years, and I have never seen anything quite this egregious,” said Stanley Collender, a longtime author on budget issues and a senior vice president at Financial Dynamics, a communications firm in Washington. …

Administration officials are omitting a second big group of costs for goals Mr. Bush has identified but not formally proposed.

By far the biggest of these is his plan to privatize Social Security in part and let people divert some of their payroll taxes to private accounts.

In otherwords, a complete tissue of lies.

Trickery makes for cute toys, but not cute budgets.

Posted in Econ & Money, Science/Medicine | 3 Comments

No Place to Hide?

Today's news about the horrific Tsunami in South Asia reminds me of the question I was pondering during our recent spate of hurricanes in Florida: Where should paranoid people live? What parts of the globe are least likely to have a natural disaster, be it earthquake, tsunami, hurricane, tornado, forest fire, mudslide, or the like?

Posted in Science/Medicine | 14 Comments

Good Thing Two Kids Was Enough

They only measured lap heat, not actual sperm production, but the results are suggestive: Laptops may damage male fertility.

I can hear the jokes already.

Posted in Science/Medicine | 2 Comments

While You Were Worrying About the Budget

While you and I were worrying about the budget — borrow more money to fund the move away from guaranteed social security???? — The American Street has been Waiting for a Protein to Shift.

Flu pandemic? If this keeps up I'm expecting a Biblical Flood.

Oh, wait. Global warming means Florida is going to be under water.

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No Borscht This Winter

U.S. Reports Possible Case of Mad Cow.

Maybe it's natural cynicism. Maybe it's living in the UK during their right-wing government's denial of what turned out to be a serious Mad Cow problem (right down to the then-Agriculture Minister feeding his young daughter a hamburger on national TV). Maybe it's an economically irrational attempt to control visible if low-probability risk in a world full of invisible higher-probability risks. But Caroline and I don't believe the US government has a handle on the potential for a Mad Cow epidemic — it isn't doing enough testing, for one thing — and we haven't been eating any beef for months now.

So, no borscht this winter (the family recipe involves beef as well as kasha and sour cream).

Posted in Science/Medicine | 2 Comments