Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina

By my count Clinton just needs to win one of these, and she wins the electoral college, even if there is a faithless elector in Washington State (or even two), and even if Trump wins New Hampshire.

All of them are very close.

I remember thinking in 1980 that surely there was no way the US would elect Ronald Reagan. I’m never making that mistake again.

As of this writing, RCP polling averages are:

Arizona Trump +4
Colorado Clinton +2.9
Florida Clinton +1.2
North Carolina Trump +0.8

But if I’m wrong that Clinton has Nevada, then Colorado alone isn’t enough, and even taking Arizona alone makes it a 270-270 tie where the faithless elector problem becomes significant. Fortunately, perhaps, the odds of Clinton winning Arizona if she were to lose Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada seem rather low. So maybe the key states are North Caroline and Florida: Trump needs both; Clinton wins with either.

Get your friends and right-thinking family members to vote.

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One Response to Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina

  1. CrunchyFrog says:

    Trump will lose Colorado by a comfortable margin.

    First, as they did in 2008 and 2012 the pollsters are undercounting the Latino vote and overestimating how many will vote Trump. This community has been passionate about voting in presidential years and the undercounted voters are predominantly against Trump.

    Second, pollsters underestimate the impact Colorado’s new electoral system will have on turnout. It’s not Oregon’s mail-only ballot – it’s better because it also allows in-person. And with rules allowing people to vote at any location in their county, instead of just their precinct, and allocation of enough locations to avoid long lines there will be far fewer discouraged voters than in 2012. All of this favors Democrats.

    There simply is no way that a state which Romney lost by 5.4% (after being down by only 2-3% in the polls) and which has increasing demographics favoring Clinton is going to go Trump.

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