Category Archives: Politics: US: 2008 Elections

In 2008 there are 33 Senators up for election: 21 are Republicans, 12 are Democrats.

Dems:

Jack Reed (D-RI)
Max Baucus (D-MT)
Tom Harkin (D-IA)
Carl Levin (D-MI)
Tim Johnson (D-SD)
John Kerry (D-MA)
Mark Pryor (D-AR)
Richard Durbin (D-IL)
Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Joe Biden (D-DE)
John Rockefeller (D-WV)

Republicans:

Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
Wayne Allart (R-CO)
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA)
Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Norm Coleman (R-MN)
Susan Collins (R-ME)
John Cornyn (R-TX)
Larry Craid (R-ID)
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)
Pete Domenici (R-NM)
Michael Enzi (R-WY)
Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Chuck Hagel (R-NE)
James Inhofe (R-OK)
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Pat Roberts (R-KS)
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Gordon Smith (R-OR)
Ted Stevens (R-AK)
John Sunun (R-NH)
John Warner (R-VA)

Warner is going to retire, and be replaced by former governor Mark Warner (D-Va)

Stevens may be vulnerable. Dole should be. Who else?

Source: Warner Won’t Run for White House . Assuming this is (a) true and (b) isn’t due to some ticking time bomb in his IM records, former Governor Warner would jump to the top of the short list for “ideal veep” for most likely candidates, putting him in a statistical tie with Senator Barack Obama. Both have big fan clubs, lack relevant experience (although in quite different ways), and have been studiously vague on major issues of the day (Warner more than Obama).

Update: The Washington Post points out some other possibilities:

Or it could allow him to seek Virginia Republican John Warner’s U.S. Senate seat if Warner retires in 2008.

The ex-governor could also run for his old job again. Virginia law does not allow sitting governors to run for reelection, but does allow them to seek the office again after a four-year hiatus. Warner, who left office with record approval ratings, has expressed repeatedly that he might want the job back someday.

You heard it here first, but the venerable and influential National Journal just anointed John Edwards as the Other Dem Front-Runner.

I’m delighted to report that the growing conventional wisdom has former Senator John Edwards as the “ABC” (Anyone But Clinton) candidate for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination. Edwards, along with Gen. Wesley Clark, is one of my two favorite likely Democratic presidential candidates. Senator Clinton has already raised about $20 million for her campaign, and has a surrounded herself with experienced campaign staff, making her seem like the candidate to beat for the nomination.

Edwards is a huge beneficiary of changes to the Democratic party’s primary schedule, which has front-loaded caucuses in states where he should do well. But as far as I know, he’s lagged badly in the money-raising department ever since former Va. governor Warner and Sen. Feingold starting gaining traction. Although I like a lot (but not all) of what Feingold says, I don’t think he has a chance of winning a national election. Warner has nice demographics — but has yet to demonstrate that he stands for anything much. Certainly the people attracted to his campaign so far are in it on the “he can win” theory, not because of any issue they can point to. If the guy has taken an interesting stand on a controversial national issue (as opposed to local Virginia issues), I sure haven’t heard about it, nor has anyone I know.

By contrast, Edwards is just impressive — someone running a campaign of optimism rather than either cautious triangulation or fear and demonization.

The way these races usually work, the media gravitates to a narrative in which there’s a front runner, an insurgent, and the “others”. Clinton gets to be front-runner for now because she probably has raised more money than everyone else put together. Given that Edwards was being squeezed a little by the profusion of other candidates, getting noticed now as the likely/possible ABC candidate is on balance a good thing, although there’s an awful lot of time before the election, which creates the risk of a “he peaked too early” narrative developing in six, twelve or even eighteen months.

Mark Schmidt does a post perfectly describing why all the leading likely GOP presidential candidates (with the mysterious absence of Tancredo) have big problems just getting through the GOP primaries, much less appealing to the whole electorate.

It being only a matter of time before someone links this reasoning to the likely candidacy of Hilary Clinton and tags the collective as “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” I figured I’d just get ahead of the curve.