Category Archives: Miami

Spotted on a bumpersticker:

“The last time people listened to a bush, they wandered for 40 years in the desert.”

Good News (for us): We've been downgraded to a mere Tropical Storm Watch. Frances the Slow is now on land, terrorizing other people — don't know about casualties, but there seems to be significant property damage and a lot of people are without power.

Bad News (for us): Ivan is now a Hurricane and he's headed straight for us.

National Hurricane Center IVAN IS STRENGTHENING RATHER RAPIDLY AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AT LEAST 75 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THIS MAKES IVAN THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN RECORDS. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE HURRICANE. ALL PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE FOR IVAN TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING…AND THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS WILL BECOME THE SEASON'S FOURTH MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE…AND IT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

Frances is north east of here and heading somewhat northwesterly, so unless it does an Andrew and skitters south as it hits land, we're going to be subject to tropical storm winds at the worst, plus some gusts, and maybe not even that. But it's so slow now that it may take another 16-24 hours, or even more, before we know it's safe to take down the shutters.

So far, it's pretty windy, and there's been some rain, but nothing you would get excited about if they didn't have those big swirly cloud pictures at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The Miami Herald delivered a special early edition last night since they figured they might not be able to get through the water this morning; that was before Frances slowed down ever farther (more waiting in the dark behind our shutters!). The NYT didn't deliver at all. The electricty has the occasional flicker, but so far so good.

Our next problem is that Tropical Storm Ivan. Frances needs to get out of the way so that they can open the shops — I don't think we have enough food for two storms in a row.

The weather is here, and it’s nice right now. A friend has two kids over who have been evacuated from Miami Beach, and they are about the age of our kids, so we took our kids swimming in their pool to keep the them company. We were driven inside by a squall after about 30 minutes, a feeder band passing over we later learned, but that passed quickly and the weather turned nice, if sometimes blustery after that.

This morning I went out first thing to buy more extension cords, since in the course of the construction on our house some of the old ones went walkabout. Streets were nearly empty, but the hardware store, while heavily picked over, was not empty. They still had some batteries, for example; I left them there, since we have many and a generator, but not without a pang, remembering Andrew and those five weeks without electricity — two weeks plus without a candle or a flashlight or a clue (we had literally just moved here from London).

As for Frances, the possibility of anti-climax grows with each hour. I can only hope.

UM-FSU football game rescheduled for 8 p.m. Sept. 10.

The National Weather Service and the news give us the consensus track, and a large bubble of uncertainty around it. That forecast, though, is built out of many different models. Often those models mostly agree. Not this time: