Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

I Hate to Think How Much Someone Got Paid to Do This

Fresh into my mailbox: Happy Birthday from UM

The link, incidentally, takes you to a really tacky video.

And no, it’s not my birthday today, although they did get the right month.

Posted in U.Miami | Comments Off on I Hate to Think How Much Someone Got Paid to Do This

North Korea Finds New Way to Be Inscrutable

This is way weirder than the fiction I’ve been reading lately:

Kim Jong-un Appears With Disney Characters on North Korean TV:

North Korean state-run television on Monday showed footage of costumed versions of Tigger, Minnie Mouse and other Disney characters prancing in front of the leader, Kim Jong-un, and an entourage of clapping generals.

The footage also showed Mr. Kim in a black Mao suit watching as Mickey Mouse conducted a group of young women playing violins in skimpy black dresses. At times, scenes from the animated Disney movies “Dumbo” and “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” were projected on a multipanel screen behind the entertainers; an article in the state-run press said unnamed foreign songs were on the bill.

The appearance of the characters from the United States, North Korea’s mortal enemy, was remarkable fare on tightly controlled North Korean television, which usually shows more somber and overtly political programs. A Disney spokeswoman, Zenia Mucha, had no comment Monday beyond a statement: “This was not licensed or authorized by the Walt Disney Company.”

This seems more like Dada than late failed autarcho-Communism. What gives?

Posted in Politics: International | Comments Off on North Korea Finds New Way to Be Inscrutable

Electoral Math for the 2012 Presidential Race

Here’s about half of what you need to know to understand the manoeuvrings in the upcoming Presidential election (most of the other half is where the money is coming from, and unless the courts do something unexpected, that’s going to be kept secret from you):

It takes 270 electoral votes to get elected. (The system overweights small states, since every state gets at least three electoral votes regardless of population as does DC.) For the large majority of the country, the election is already nearly over. Most states are either safe for one candidate or the other, or leaning hard enough in one direction that, assuming no horrible surprises or scandals and assuming a competent ground game, we can predict the result.

Add it up and President Obama has 185 in the bag and 32 leaners. He needs 53 more to win.

Mitt Romney has 158 electoral votes in the bag, and 48 leaners. He needs 64 more to win.

Thus, unless the money available to the Romney campaign is so great that they can peel off some Obama leaners, the real fight will be over the 115 electoral votes in the so-called swing states. That’s where the biggest expenditures — the giant ad barrages and more — will be. Those are the places where the candidates will go most often, and towards which they will craft their messages. And those are the places where, if you happen to live there, your vote will count the most.

And, naturally, Florida leads the list (numbers are electoral votes):

Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4

I think Obama loses Florida and Iowa, and I don’t feel great about Wisconsin.

I think Romney loses Ohio and Nevada and is looking weak in New Hampshire.

So if Obama can win Pennsylvania and Colorado, does that put him over the top?

Alternately, I think if Obama wins either Florida or Virginia, he gets re-elected. Conversely, if Romney wins Pennsylvania or Ohio, his chances have to look good.

Predictions, anyone?

Data Source: NY Times, The Electoral Map – Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States – Election 2012

Posted in 2012 Election | 3 Comments

Cost of Bank Bailouts >> Cost of Science

The UK has (allegedly) spent more on saving banks in a year than it has spent on science “since Jesus”.

— BBC News, spotted via boingboing’s One year of econopocalypse would pay for a civilization’s worth of science

So if we took the bailout money and gave it to scientists, I’d have my flying car?

Posted in Econ & Money | 4 Comments

Free Riders and Public Goods — Real and Fake

One of the first things you learn when you study public welfare economics or public choice theory is that the private provision of public goods runs up against the problem of free riders — people who benefit but don’t pay. This is one of the core justifications for the governmental provision of public goods such as police and fire protection, and for the funding of those services through compulsory taxation. One of the things you learn later is that there is some debate over what exactly qualifies as a public good. And in some courses you also learn that rent-seeking businesses like to masquerade as suppliers of a public good in order to get subsidies they do not deserve.

Our modern experiment with gutting local, state, and now national government in the names of low taxes and privatized profit while simultaneously offering handouts to well-connected corporations provides telling reminders of each of these lessons.

The most recent of these is the Hallandale Beach lifeguard who lost his job for saving a life. Unfortunately for Tomas Lopez, he left his station in the lifeguard zone unattended in order to save a swimmer in distress in the no-lifeguard zone. As the nation now knows, Lopez got fired for that dereliction of duty (and then got offered his job back when the media howls began).

Lopez’s employer would have preferred Lopez act like the fire department in Obion County, TN that just watched while a home burnt to the ground because the homeowner hadn’t paid his household subscription fee to the local fire department.

And of course the Affordable Health Care Act’s ‘mandate’ raises similar issues, in that it tries to penalize free riders who might choose not to buy insurance, perhaps counting on public provision of emergency medical care.

Meanwhile, across the nation, we give corporate welfare to stadiums and other businesses that promise usually dubious local benefits. Here in South Florida, the latest example is Jungle Island. Once a great offbeat local attraction known as Parrot Jungle, the management sold their lovely grounds in Kendall for a development and with the fig leaf that it would be good for jobs, development, and tourism, they got the City of Miami to give them a loan not even a bank would have agreed to. They built an unattractive park in an out-of-the-way location, and overcharged to see it. Unsurprisingly it went bad, and as the taxpayers are the last to be paid rather than the first, we haven’t seen any of our money back. Instead they’ve gotten further subsidies. Equally unsurprisingly, the Jungle Island people have a proposed solution: the city should double down and give them more land and more money so they can build a hotel. At least this one isn’t going under the radar.

The moral of the story is that we need the government to support true public goods: police, fire, basic health care — but not tourist attractions. How sad we so often have it backwards.

Incidentally, to an economist, the lifeguard question is harder than it may seem: one optimal solution in a basic microeconomics textbook would probably be to charge admission to the beach and use that to pay for the lifeguard. Second-best would be to make clear where was protected and where wasn’t (which is what Hallandale Beach did), and let people choose, so long as there isn’t a risk of gratuitous rescue.

In a public welfare frame, though, we’d ask if there’s a public cost to letting people drown — if it makes us feel bad maybe it’s not worth the financial savings. Or, if we think that swimmers can’t be trusted to make good decisions about their safety, we might make a parentalist decision to provide lifeguard services whether swimmers know enough to demand them or not. Alternatively, if we think beaches are a public good and charging for them would depress their use below the optimum, then it would be wrong to charge for access them in which case it makes sense to treat lifeguarding as a public good too.

Posted in Econ & Money, Miami | 9 Comments

Not the Night Before Christmas

For reasons unknown to me, the blog is sometimes showing Pentagon Whitewash Watch (posted Dec. 24, 2011) as the lead item.

I’m working on it….

Posted in Discourse.net | Comments Off on Not the Night Before Christmas