When Not to Get COVID-19 in Florida

No time is a good time to get COVID-19. But if I understood it, the healthdata.org site predicts that in Florida the worst time to get COVID-19 will be about April 15-May 15, in that the demand for ICU beds will outstrip supply in that period. Interestingly, the healthdata.org site doesn’t predict that there will be no hospital beds at all at any point. Of course it’s a big state, so a bed in the Panhandle is of limited use in Miami, or vice versa.

There might, I fear, be another problem with this projection that causes it to understate the problem: a bed is not much use without healthcare workers. I don’t see any sign that these projections take account of the possible toll on doctors, nurses, technicians, and other support personnel in hospitals, although again it’s entirely possible I’m missing something. In some scenarios, the absence of medical professionals due to illness, ill family, childcare needs, or other factors might be a bigger constraint than beds at some critical times.

I’m also not real clear on why this and other estimates put the Florida peak so much later than most other states given that we seem to be ramping up quite quickly. Can anyone explain please?

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2 Responses to When Not to Get COVID-19 in Florida

  1. I think because the Florida governor has still not mandated a state-wide lockdown, so further viral spread is not being deterred. Given the (network) time lag between infection and the disease being advanced enough to require hospitalization, that means that the virus is still spreading today to people who will start to need hospitalization in two weeks’ time – April 15. And people typically don’t go home after one day, so you get a pile-up of patients as more come in but only a minority leave every day. That’s my best effort to understand it, anyway. Plus, the people who present with illness in the next two weeks will have been spreading it in the meantime to people they live with or come into contact with. It doesn’t help that Florida has perhaps the oldest population in the US. I think your point about health care staff is exactly right, unfortunately.

  2. Gunawan Dewa Saputra says:

    After issuing policies related to physical distancing and working at home, this time the government made a new decision regarding the drugs used. The choice of the Indonesian government fell on Avigan and Chloroquine. Although still quite foreign to the ears of the public, both drugs have been proven to have a mechanism that is needed to deal with Covid-19. http://news.unair.ac.id/en/2020/03/31/avigan-and-chloroquine-for-covid-19-treatment-unair-expert-usage-must-be-under-medical-worker-supervision/

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