No time is a good time to get COVID-19. But if I understood it, the healthdata.org site predicts that in Florida the worst time to get COVID-19 will be about April 15-May 15, in that the demand for ICU beds will outstrip supply in that period. Interestingly, the healthdata.org site doesn’t predict that there will be no hospital beds at all at any point. Of course it’s a big state, so a bed in the Panhandle is of limited use in Miami, or vice versa.
There might, I fear, be another problem with this projection that causes it to understate the problem: a bed is not much use without healthcare workers. I don’t see any sign that these projections take account of the possible toll on doctors, nurses, technicians, and other support personnel in hospitals, although again it’s entirely possible I’m missing something. In some scenarios, the absence of medical professionals due to illness, ill family, childcare needs, or other factors might be a bigger constraint than beds at some critical times.
I’m also not real clear on why this and other estimates put the Florida peak so much later than most other states given that we seem to be ramping up quite quickly. Can anyone explain please?