Yearly Archives: 2008

VOTE! (Preferably for Obama)

If you are a US citizen 18 years old or more and have not yet voted you really should do so.

I hope that this is the most important election in a generation; I fear that may have been 2004.

Barack Obama was not my first choice in the primaries, but he has run a truly admirable campaign on multiple levels, and he has earned your vote the hard way.

The most admirable aspect of Obama's campaign has been its organization, both internally and externally. A disciplined staff, a clear and consistent message (right down to the typography and iconography). Smart use of both old and new media. Restrained and modulated use of an incredible gift for oratory. Mass organization of volunteers all over — all over — this country.

The next most admirable aspect of the campaign has been what it has shown us about the candidate: thoughtful, disciplined, decent, very intelligent, and politically canny. What he lacks in experience he makes up for in book smarts, street smarts, and a worldview that this a product of a cosmopolitan, multi-racial experience blended with close study of issues.

On balance, this canniness is an asset in a President. Those who lacked it — Carter comes to mind — were soon roadkill. But the canniness comes at a price, and that price is seen in the third most admirable aspect of the campaign, and that is its policies. Make no mistake: Obama's policies are much more likely to improve the lot of the average American than McCain's continuation of trickle-up economics. Obama's health plan will protect millions more people. Obama's commitment to technologically enhanced openness in government seems deep and sincere. I hope he will close Guantanamo; I'm certain he will end US state-authorized torture.

But…the health care plan has holes. They're canny holes — they allowed Senator Obama to describe the plan in terms that made it seems nonthreatening to those looking for something to be threatened by. And that may in fact be only way to pass something large. I'm prepared to believe that. Less easy to swallow was the ducking on FISA. Again, the politics are clear; but here the price is essential principle. And I'm still waiting to see some “clean coal”. Again, canny. But at a price. I could go on, but you get the idea.

The least savory aspect of the Obama campaign was its embrace of the role of money in politics (there's that canny again). On the one hand, the money came from people, not PACs. But on the other, the incredible sums raised and spent seem all too likely to open the door wider to future corruption of the process by the relentless demands of fund-raising.

In this campaign, Obama has managed to connote JFK, FDR, Reagan and Lincoln (and maybe Constantine I, too), sometimes all at once. Heady company indeed. Each great, each with real flaws.

Senator McCain, in contrast, has embraced his inner Atwater, and run a campaign that is most kindly described as reckless if not desperate, and more cruelly if accurately described as irresponsible and ugly. It has lurched from theme to theme, and few of them have made much sense. Ready, shoot, aim is not a good method for a President. And the McCain's campaign inability to execute on either simple matters or major ones (Sarah Palin) suggests that whatever the value of his various experiences it does not translate well into management, and that indeed the Senator is more maverick than statesman, more gimmick than leader. The decision to focus on innuendo and character assassination rather than substance may have made tactical sense, but it served the nation poorly. McCain ran a campaign without honor and with little substance. And when there was substance, it wasn't detailed, wasn't convincing, sometimes wasn't coherent (especially as regards the economy). McCain's one clear policy — foreign policy belligerence — is appropriate neither to times nor to our diminished capabilities. The signs point to only one conclusion: for whatever reason, be it age, the corruption of ambition, or the real man exposed at last, as a President John McCain would be as bad as George Bush and in some ways worse.

This country has been mis-governed hideously for the last eight years, and erratically for many years before that. The task of reform is too great for any one man. It requires a leader who can attract a strong team, give it its head, and can lead — yes, that sometimes mean persuade — a nation.

The choice in this election could not be clearer, the stakes have rarely been higher, and the conclusion (even if you don't buy the hype) could not be clearer.

Obama.jpg

To succeed, the new President will need a Congress that is not in the grip of obstructionists bent on destroying him and exterminating any progressive opening that he might represent. So don't forget the rest of the ticket, please, either.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

[post time adjusted]

Posted in Politics: US: 2008 Elections | 1 Comment

I’ll Be on BBC Five Live

I'm going to be on BBC Five Live this evening at 9:30pm US time talking about the US election. Five Live is the UK's answer to talk radio

The interviewer will be Rhod Sharp, and the program will be broadcast in the UK and live online too.

Posted in The Media | Comments Off on I’ll Be on BBC Five Live

Evil Flier Being Handed Out at Coral Gables Polling Location

I have a lot to say about my experiences Friday and Saturday at the Coral Gables Library polling location. I spent many hours handing out Taddeo literature and answering voters' questions about her stands on the issues. And just before seven p.m. on Friday I joined the end of the long line in order to vote.

Much (but not all) of both experiences were good, and in the end, after a couple of scares, I think I did get to vote.

But I'd like to start by putting up a copy of a particularly disgusting leaflet that someone else was handing out. I never got a look at him, but many voters told me how horrified they were by this. (My reaction was to laugh very loud, and to encourage others to do the same.)

I'm copying just as it looked — it appeared to be a photocopy literally copied crooked on a 8.5 × 5.5 sheet of paper.

click for bigger copy

You can click on the picture for a bigger copy.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

Posted in Politics: US: 2008 Elections | 3 Comments

What to Look for on Tuesday

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right, What A McCain Win Looks Like…

…there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.

Florida. Necessary but not sufficient for McCain.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

Posted in Politics: US: 2008 Elections | Comments Off on What to Look for on Tuesday

McCain is Coming … Here?

According to this communication from U.M., John McCain is coming to campus tomorrow night. And I mean night.

Presidential Candidate John McCain at BankUnited Center Tomorrow Night

Republican candidate for president Senator John McCain will be speaking at an RNC Road to Victory Rally Sunday evening at the BankUnited Center on the Coral Gables campus. Doors will open at 7:30 p.m. and the program will begin with performances by several Spanish-language musical groups. Senator McCain will speak at around 11:30 p.m.

This rally is open to the general public and the University community. Students, faculty, and staff must bring their 'Cane cards to gain admission to the event. Members of the general public should visit this Web site to obtain tickets.

For security purposes, do not bring bags and please limit personal items. The following items are not permitted in the BankUnited Center: signs, banners, video and audio recorders, and cameras. For the complete list of items not permitted in the BankUnited Center, visit www.bankunitedcenter.com.

Sound like the real fun might be outside?

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

Posted in U.Miami | 2 Comments

In the Interests of (Social) Science (Final Repeat)

According to a very polite email I got six weeks ago, a research team from the Psychology Department at New York University, headed by Professor Yaacov Trope and supported by the National Science Foundation, is investigating the cognitive causes of voting behavior, political preferences, and candidate evaluations throughout the course of the 2008 U.S. Presidential election.

They're doing a study and in the hope of getting politically aware respondents are asking bloggers to pass on their request to fill out their survey. The study will, they hope, “shed light on the information people use to inform evaluations during the last few weeks before the election”. They “seek respondents of all political leanings from all over the country (and from the rest of the world)” to complete a 15-minute questionnaire, the responses to which they promise will be completely anonymous.

It looks legit.

One interesting aspect of the request is that I turn off comments on this item: “a necessary precaution we have to take in order to avoid the bias that is likely to result when new respondents see comments about the survey before taking it.” That sounds sensible, so I've complied with the request.

Another is that they want time series data:

… we would like to have respondents complete the survey throughout the days leading up to the Election. To this end, if would be ideal if you were willing to have the link appear (i.e., repost it) four times, in equally spaced out intervals (about every two weeks), with the first running asap and the last running several days prior to Election Day. Of course, if you would be willing to post it even once, it would already be a great help to us.

So, what the heck, I've queued it up for science. Excuse the repeats.

Posted in Politics: US | Comments Off on In the Interests of (Social) Science (Final Repeat)