Monthly Archives: October 2005

Forecaster Franklin of the National Hurricane Center, says, in the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion,

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS…WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION…WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE…WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA’S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE…AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME…BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED…SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY THE TIMING…HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

I do so hate the ALL CAPS, but three things are clear:

1. They don’t really have much confidence what this storm is actually going to do. A 1650 nautical mile gap in the five-day forecast is indeed rather heroic. [A nautical mile is 6080 feet or about 1853m.]

2. Forecaster Franklin really does have a wry sense of humor. He’s much more fun to read than the other forecasters.

3. Things have come to a pretty pass when one has a favorite National Hurricane Center forecaster.

So here comes Wilma.

I woke up this morning to the radio telling me it’s already a Category 5 hurricane and it hasn’t even gone over the warm waters of the Gulf yet. And there is no number higher than 5. So it was something of a relief to see that the current forecast predicts Wilma will encounter something called “shear” at about the time it makes its strange predicted right turn Friday morning. Even so it will be “formidable” (er, what exactly does that mean?) when it comes ’round here. And the eye is currently predicted to cross not too far north of us. In fact, not very north at all. Well within forecast error. So this is not, on the whole, good.

I trust the house to withstand a major hurricane; rebuilt to the latest codes it is in theory supposed to be able to withstand over 160 MPH winds, even a weak five, although I have no desire to put it to the test, and you have to wonder what would be left of the surroundings at that point.

It would be nice if the weather service could cough up some numerical idea of what “formidable” means…although short of buying plane tickets, there’s no way I or most of the people here can do much about it. We can’t go south, there basically is no south, and the hurricane itself will be north of us. There are not many highways, and a mass exodus from Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach would make the chaos on the Texas roads look like the Indy 500.

As is traditional, I went and stocked up on dry goods this morning. I think the real panic shopping started yesterday; some of the shelves were looking quite Soviet. The Publix supermarket employees were grumbling about the extra work (“I’m not coming in on my day off whatever the hurricane does,” one humphed to another.) In addition to fighting for parking, one had to keep a sharp eye out for a shopping cart.

It’s only Wednesday, and it won’t hit until late Friday at the earliest, if at all, and people are already worried and distracted, with some reason. The chance of actual disaster doesn’t (yet) seem that large, far too many variables, although right now due to its sheer force this one looks like the most ominous one so far this year. And some part of Florida is going to get it. And, they now say, maybe even New England too, later on.

This is all very distracting.

[Obligatory Flintstones reference: this story about Bamm-Bamm isn’t true, is it?]