Monthly Archives: September 2004

11pm Frances Report

Posted on September 1, 2004 by Michael Froomkin

We have a hurricane watch along with much of the bottom half of the Florida coast.

Offical odds for a hit on Miami remain almost unchanged, with the bulls-eye still just enough north of here to make the misery go elsewhere. Our cumulative chance of a strike has risen to 20%, but that's only because the new tables project further out into Saturday. The peak period remans 11% between 8PM Thursday and 8AM Friday. Meanwhile, however, the National Weather Service's discussion of the track, which has been dominated for two days by puzzlement as to why the various different models diverge so much, has taken on a new note.

I don't know why the National Hurricane Center forecasters still have to WRITE THEIR ANALYSIS IN ALL CAPS just like they probably did in the days of the telegraph, but here is the 11pm discussion of the meteorology? I have taken the liberty of adding bold to the parts that caught my eye:

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154 KT…OR 177 MPH…AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT…EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION…FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT 120 KT…WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER…THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH…WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130 HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS. THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS…COMPARED TO 18Z SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA…APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW. HOWEVER…THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W…OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM… THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO…00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST…WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK…AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW…WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z ADVISORY…NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER…WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANCES…I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.

That would be…this way.

Posted in Miami | 2 Comments

Battening Down the Hatches

Posted on September 1, 2004 by Michael Froomkin

It's official:

The University of Miami's Coral Gables and Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science campuses will be closed for classes on both Thursday and Friday, September 2 and 3.

Only essential employees are required to report to work at the Coral Gables and Rosenstiel School campuses.

And I am not an “essential employee”. So I don't have to come in. But I'm on leave, so I don't have to come in anyway. Wait, there's more…

All academic buildings must be vacated by noon on Thursday. All non-essential buildings will be closed and secured at noon on Thursday.

Translation: If I come in they may kick me out of my office?

A decision on the UM-FSU football game, currently scheduled for Monday, September 6, is expected to be made on Thursday.

If they cancel a football game, then you know it's really serious. Update: They postponed it.

The following Coral Gables campus facilities will be open on Thursday until 5 p.m.:

* Food Court (and all Residential College Dining Rooms)
* Richter Library
* University Bookstore
* Student Health Center
* Wellness Center
* University Center
* Starbucks

I guess the people at Starbucks are essential employees.

Posted in Miami | 1 Comment

Democratic Centralism in the Republican Party

Posted on September 1, 2004 by Michael Froomkin

Kevin Drum:

I don't really care about immigration policy all that much, but Colorado Representative Tom Tancredo does. So he tried to get his views adopted in the Republican party platform.

When that failed, he decided to see if he could gin up a floor fight at the convention. This was more political theater than anything else, but even so he ran into an unusual problem:

There are two ways to bring a matter to the floor: One is to convince six state delegations to support the motion for a floor debate—a virtual impossibility, Tancredo realized; the other is to get 19 members of the platform committee to support bringing a matter to the floor. This latter route seemed doable to Tancredo, save for one problem: The congressman couldn't find out who, exactly, was on the platform committee. Running the platform process with all the discipline and secrecy that's come to be expected from the Bush White House, the RNC, citing security concerns, refused to divulge the identities of the handpicked delegates who served on the platform committee—even, in some cases, to other members of the platform committee.

The names of the platform committee members are a secret? For “security reasons”? Has the party leadership gone completely insane? (That's a rhetorical question, of course. No need to answer.)

And this is democracy, how exactly?

Posted in Law: Criminal Law | 3 Comments

Free Country Datum IV: Arrested, Held, Without Charges — For Biking on the Street

Posted on September 1, 2004 by Michael Froomkin

arrest | Toneland describes an arrest — allegedly without any charges — for biking (in a very large group) on a public street. The arrest was followed by moderately unkind treatment that could be explained perhaps as cops coping with the expected chaos of the Republican convention, or could be seen as a punitive measure to 'send a message' to demonstrators.

Of course, this first person narrative is just one side of the story. Here's CNN's account, in which the police say the bikes were blocking traffic (by moving in traffic?). I thought you got a ticket for that, not 16 hours in a holding pen followed by a trip to the Tombs.

Interestingly, there's no suggestion the arrests were for demonstrating without a permit. In any case, the issue here isn't just the charge, or lack of a charge, but also how the bikers were treated.

One hears much worse stories about other countries, and indeed about this one. But we still can do much better than this.

Posted in Civil Liberties | 3 Comments

A Very Exclusive Club

Posted on September 1, 2004 by Michael Froomkin

My distinguished, articulate, and wry colleague Susan Haack, who holds a joint appointment in Philosophy and Law has been honored with inclusion in a book profiling One Hundred Philosophers : The Life and Work of the World's Greatest Thinkers.

Update: For those who do not follow the link, I should perhaps make clear that this does not appear to be a peer-reviewed production, but rather a well-illustrated list of the 100 greatest philosophers of all time — and not just Western ones. There's a page or so on each philosopher, nice graphics, and some potted outlines of major schools of philosophy. So according to Dr. Peter J., King, Ph.D. Susan is up there with Plato, Aristotle and K'ung-fu-tzu (Confucius). And Peter Singer.

Also, I've changed the link so that if you buy the book, a small commission goes to ICANNWatch.org.

Posted in U.Miami | 2 Comments

Hurricane Frances Latest

Posted on September 1, 2004 by Michael Froomkin

At this moment, the latest predictions show about at 15% chance we'll be hit, with the biggest chance, 11%, for Thursday night to Friday morning. These are not such awful odds. But we all know that hurricane landfall is a very inexact science. The current track gets near enough to the track of Charlie that the poor folks on the west coast may be getting hit twice in a fortnight.

Hurricane Frances is already category four, which is pretty nasty, and they have tended to get stronger as they run toward land. Unless the prediciton changes radically, I guess I'll be putting up shutters tomorrow morining.

Meanwhile, on campus, the Associate Dean says:

To: Students
From: Stephen J. Schnably, Associate Dean

The University is currently monitoring the progress of Hurricane Frances. All classes remain on regular schedule.

a. When will we be notified of any decision to close the University?

We expect that the University central administration will make a decision tomorrow whether (and when) to close the University, including the Law School. The University is currently putting up some shutters, but that is only a precautionary measure necessitated by the large number of shutters the University has. No decision to close the University has been made at this time.

b. How will faculty, staff, and students know if a decision is made to close the University?

The Dean of Students Office number will serve as the Law School's hotline (305-284-4551). In addition, if the University announces a closing, we will —

* send an e-mail to students
* post it on the information monitors in Subway, the library, and the student lounge.
* post it on the law school web page
* post it on signs around the Law School campus.
The University has a hotline at 305-284-5151. You can also check this number, but information specific to the Law School will be at the Dean of Students number, 305-284-4551.

c. What do I need to do now?

The University does not provide shelter for non-resident students in a hurricane. Double-check your own personal preparedness plan for a hurricane. Useful sources of information include:

  • The National Hurricane Center website, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
  • The Miami-Dade Emergency Management Office — http://www.co.miami-dade.fl.us/oem/hurricane/home.asp
  • The University's Hurricane Preparedness Website — http://www.miami.edu/prepare/. This page has many helpful links (check http://www.miami.edu/UMH/CDA/UMH_Main/1,1770,19025-1;20070-3,00.html), including the Broward County emergency management office.

cc: Faculty, Administration, and Staff

On the home front, my older child's school announced at a special assembly that it will be closing for Thursday and Friday. The students duly cheered. Update: All the K-12 schools in town are going to be closed Thursday and Friday. Sort of like Florida's answer to snow days, I guess.

But my committee meeting for tomorrow remains stubbornly uncanceled. If it goes, I may cheer too.

Posted in Miami | 1 Comment