The best analysis I've seen so far of the politics of the Sotomayor nomination is SCOTUSblog, The Dynamic of the Nomination of Sonia Sotomayor.
I don't agree with every word, but the key points seem right:
- Obama has the votes for this;
- That won't stop the interest groups from going berserk, because that's what they do and they get rich off it;
- Key Republicans will take a dive because the costs of opposition are too great;
- The Republicans, and the interest groups, will exact payback on the next one.