Category Archives: Miami

I suppose this (Wilma Advisory #35) is what the folks at RSMAS knew was coming:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS …AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA… BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM… FROM THE CENTER…

[…]

THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA … AND THE FLORIDA KEYS… HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

So someone, somewhere is going to get battered. Here, it could be ok, it could be inconvenient for several days, it could be worse than that….

Mind you, at present it’s not raining here just south of Miami, and only a bit gusty. Well, actually, quite gusty…

Fresh into my in-box:

University of Miami Closed Monday and Tuesday

The University of Miami is closed Monday and Tuesday, October 24 and 25. All classes, clinical activities, and events are canceled for Monday. All classes and events are canceled for Tuesday; however, a decision on Tuesday’s clinical activities at the UM medical campus will be announced on Monday at 2 p.m.

The people making these decisions for the University consult with the weather experts at RSMAS. (RSMAS is widely acknowledged to be one of the few, perhaps the only, world-class faculties on campus; I’ve heard people elsewhere say the oceanography parts of it are #1 or #2 in the world.) That the University is willing to make this decision so far in advance is not cheerful.

From a selfish point of view, and assuming we make it through Wilma in the same number of pieces we are now, it means a lot of make-up classes in a decreasingly short period, which cannot be good for my students’ understanding of the material.

So much for our hope that wind shear would weaken Wilma:

IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP UNTIL LANDFALL

…

RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER… SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND…AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO…BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

There is apparently a 20-49% chance the eye will pass on top of us. How much Wilma might weaken over the relatively narrow Florida Peninsula, and how much we might get beat up if we are, say, 100 miles from the center, I cannot discern. The best information I can find is the wind speed chart which suggests a consensus forecast of maximum winds just under 100MPH at the worst point of the storm at the time when we might expect it here. That seems to make Miami’s worst-case Wilma a category two on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale. Presumably, the further you are from the center, the less chance of that sort of wind (modulo tornadoes, which are sometimes spun off hurricanes).

So the worst we can reaonbly expect is worse than our version of Rita Katrina (a nasty storm, but just a one on the Saffir-Simpson scale), although perhaps not massively worse, as category one goes up to 95 MPH.

I expect the power may be out a while. Meanwhile, here is a picture of my hurricane security blanket.

The University and the Law School will be closed Monday, October 24, 2005 due to Hurricane Wilma. Which is only sensible, as the latest forecast is for a substantial hurricane to hit just north of us Monday morning. (How substantial? How far North? No one knows. And even the timing forecast is a bit dodgy.)

University of Miami to Close at 3 p.m. on Sunday and Remain Closed on Monday

All campuses of the University of Miami will close at 3 p.m. Sunday, October 23, and will remain closed through Monday, October 24. All classes, clinical activities, and events are canceled for that time period; however, essential personnel should report to work according to their unit’s emergency plan.

All academic buildings, the libraries (including the School of Law library), the UM Bookstore, and the Wellness Center, will close promptly at 3 p.m. Sunday, and will be locked and secured at that time. There will be no access to these buildings after 3 p.m.

Through the duration of the storm, the most up-to-date information on specific closings and schedules will be available on the University’s Emergency Preparedness Web site, www.miami.edu/prepare, and by calling the Rumor Control Hotline at 305-284-5151. The Hotline will be staffed with live operators beginning at 6 p.m. on Sunday.

Disaster planning usually includes taking down the law school computer system. Thus, the best way to reach me is described in how to email me. Of course, if I lose power at home I won’t be reading the email, but at least you will know that I will get it some day. (This blog should remain up, as it’s based in California. However, I may not be able to prune the spam.)

I went shopping again this morning to top up our food supplies. The Publix was well-stocked, except for water, of which there was only a little. What was amazing was how empty the shop was of people. I often shop Saturday mornings, and while I was not alone, this was the emptiest I’ve ever seen it then. I guess lots of people binge shopped earlier in the week, and so stayed home today.

Similarly, when I went to fill up the car this afternoon, the gas station was quiet. But the employees at the local liquor store were told this afternoon to expect to report for work Monday morning, which strikes me as either foolish optimism on the boss’s part, a sign of a slave driving mentality, or a weird idea of what constitutes essential hurricane supplies.

Bottom line of the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion: We know there is a big storm and it will hit the tip of Mexico. We all agree it will head for Florida next and hit some time after 7am Monday, maybe much later, and hit somewhere in the state, at some intensity. It might be horrible. It might not be. We don’t expect to know much more until Saturday at the earliest, and probably not until Sunday. (By which point it will be too late to do much.)

IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS… THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER… THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE… AND BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER… IF WILMA DOES NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN… IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.