Category Archives: Miami

The University and the Law School will be closed Monday, October 24, 2005 due to Hurricane Wilma. Which is only sensible, as the latest forecast is for a substantial hurricane to hit just north of us Monday morning. (How substantial? How far North? No one knows. And even the timing forecast is a bit dodgy.)

University of Miami to Close at 3 p.m. on Sunday and Remain Closed on Monday

All campuses of the University of Miami will close at 3 p.m. Sunday, October 23, and will remain closed through Monday, October 24. All classes, clinical activities, and events are canceled for that time period; however, essential personnel should report to work according to their unit’s emergency plan.

All academic buildings, the libraries (including the School of Law library), the UM Bookstore, and the Wellness Center, will close promptly at 3 p.m. Sunday, and will be locked and secured at that time. There will be no access to these buildings after 3 p.m.

Through the duration of the storm, the most up-to-date information on specific closings and schedules will be available on the University’s Emergency Preparedness Web site, www.miami.edu/prepare, and by calling the Rumor Control Hotline at 305-284-5151. The Hotline will be staffed with live operators beginning at 6 p.m. on Sunday.

Disaster planning usually includes taking down the law school computer system. Thus, the best way to reach me is described in how to email me. Of course, if I lose power at home I won’t be reading the email, but at least you will know that I will get it some day. (This blog should remain up, as it’s based in California. However, I may not be able to prune the spam.)

I went shopping again this morning to top up our food supplies. The Publix was well-stocked, except for water, of which there was only a little. What was amazing was how empty the shop was of people. I often shop Saturday mornings, and while I was not alone, this was the emptiest I’ve ever seen it then. I guess lots of people binge shopped earlier in the week, and so stayed home today.

Similarly, when I went to fill up the car this afternoon, the gas station was quiet. But the employees at the local liquor store were told this afternoon to expect to report for work Monday morning, which strikes me as either foolish optimism on the boss’s part, a sign of a slave driving mentality, or a weird idea of what constitutes essential hurricane supplies.

Bottom line of the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion: We know there is a big storm and it will hit the tip of Mexico. We all agree it will head for Florida next and hit some time after 7am Monday, maybe much later, and hit somewhere in the state, at some intensity. It might be horrible. It might not be. We don’t expect to know much more until Saturday at the earliest, and probably not until Sunday. (By which point it will be too late to do much.)

IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS… THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER… THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE… AND BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER… IF WILMA DOES NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN… IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.

Still heading straight for us, indeed aiming a little closer to Miami than before, but a bit slower and weaker. As Franklin put it,

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED…THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS…AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

… WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

Weaker means we can relax a little. Slower also means it gets here Sunday, if it stays on track. So,

The University will be open for business as usual tomorrow, Friday.

The University continues to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Wilma. The Crisis Decision Team (CDT) will meet again tomorrow to determine the status of University schedules for Saturday and Sunday.

They are already putting up metal shutters on the buildings, and sandbags by every door. I suppose that makes more sense than paying overtime during the weekend. It’s not actually even raining now too, which make the work easier.

Forecaster Franklin of the National Hurricane Center, says, in the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion,

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS…WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION…WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE…WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA’S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE…AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME…BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED…SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY THE TIMING…HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

I do so hate the ALL CAPS, but three things are clear:

1. They don’t really have much confidence what this storm is actually going to do. A 1650 nautical mile gap in the five-day forecast is indeed rather heroic. [A nautical mile is 6080 feet or about 1853m.]

2. Forecaster Franklin really does have a wry sense of humor. He’s much more fun to read than the other forecasters.

3. Things have come to a pretty pass when one has a favorite National Hurricane Center forecaster.

So here comes Wilma.

I woke up this morning to the radio telling me it’s already a Category 5 hurricane and it hasn’t even gone over the warm waters of the Gulf yet. And there is no number higher than 5. So it was something of a relief to see that the current forecast predicts Wilma will encounter something called “shear” at about the time it makes its strange predicted right turn Friday morning. Even so it will be “formidable” (er, what exactly does that mean?) when it comes ’round here. And the eye is currently predicted to cross not too far north of us. In fact, not very north at all. Well within forecast error. So this is not, on the whole, good.

I trust the house to withstand a major hurricane; rebuilt to the latest codes it is in theory supposed to be able to withstand over 160 MPH winds, even a weak five, although I have no desire to put it to the test, and you have to wonder what would be left of the surroundings at that point.

It would be nice if the weather service could cough up some numerical idea of what “formidable” means…although short of buying plane tickets, there’s no way I or most of the people here can do much about it. We can’t go south, there basically is no south, and the hurricane itself will be north of us. There are not many highways, and a mass exodus from Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach would make the chaos on the Texas roads look like the Indy 500.

As is traditional, I went and stocked up on dry goods this morning. I think the real panic shopping started yesterday; some of the shelves were looking quite Soviet. The Publix supermarket employees were grumbling about the extra work (“I’m not coming in on my day off whatever the hurricane does,” one humphed to another.) In addition to fighting for parking, one had to keep a sharp eye out for a shopping cart.

It’s only Wednesday, and it won’t hit until late Friday at the earliest, if at all, and people are already worried and distracted, with some reason. The chance of actual disaster doesn’t (yet) seem that large, far too many variables, although right now due to its sheer force this one looks like the most ominous one so far this year. And some part of Florida is going to get it. And, they now say, maybe even New England too, later on.

This is all very distracting.

[Obligatory Flintstones reference: this story about Bamm-Bamm isn’t true, is it?]