Category Archives: Econ & Money

Too Good To Be True

I was actually modestly cheerful this morning, reading about the Bush administration coming out against some of the most atrocious farm subsidies.

It would be nice to have a government initiative I could actually agree with.

Comes now Brad DeLong, assisted by Mark Schmitt, to bring me back down to earth…where in fact this is just another example of the Washington Monument ploy, or perhaps even just an other episode of Dingbat Kabuki.

Sigh.

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Good Ideas in Economics, Summarized For Your Convenience

Robert's Stochastic thoughts, formerly Robert's Random Thoughts, summarizes (sends up?) the good ideas in economics as falling in one of 14 categories.

I think he's on to something here, at least if you accept, as I do, that whatever virtues may have lurked in his sociology, Marx was a very poor economist.

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Two Optical Illusions: One Smart, One Stupid-Scary

The Dragon Illusion (video) is one super-smart illusion. It uses the way eyes and brain are wired to take advantage of mistaken assumptions:

When we see a solid object rotating, there are all sorts of clues that tell us what is going on, which way it is rotating, etc. The dragon gives us the wrong clues, because we mis-interpret what its shape is. The nose of the dragon appears to be pointing out towards the viewer, but in fact the dragon's head is concave.

The Bush plan to create deficit-cutting bragging rights also tries to take advantage of mistaken assumptions, primarily the one that our goverment wouldn't lie quite this brazenly:

To make Mr. Bush's goal easier to reach, administration officials have decided to measure their progress against a $521 billion deficit they predicted last February rather than last year's actual shortfall of $413 billion.

By starting with the outdated projection, Mr. Bush can say he has already reduced the shortfall by about $100 billion and claim victory if the deficit falls to just $260 billion.

But White House budget planners are not stopping there. Administration officials are also invoking optimistic assumptions about rising tax revenue while excluding costs for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as trillions of dollars in costs that lie just outside Mr. Bush's five-year budget window. …

“I've been watching this more than 30 years, and I have never seen anything quite this egregious,” said Stanley Collender, a longtime author on budget issues and a senior vice president at Financial Dynamics, a communications firm in Washington. …

Administration officials are omitting a second big group of costs for goals Mr. Bush has identified but not formally proposed.

By far the biggest of these is his plan to privatize Social Security in part and let people divert some of their payroll taxes to private accounts.

In otherwords, a complete tissue of lies.

Trickery makes for cute toys, but not cute budgets.

Posted in Econ & Money, Science/Medicine | 3 Comments

The Greeks Had A Name For It

The Washington Post's Jonathan Weisman notices something important, then fails to call it by its name.

Changing for the Better — or Worse?. Throughout a two-day conference on the economy, President Bush and his allies extolled the virtues of his tax cuts and “pro-growth” policies, which they said have lifted the nation from recession and propelled it well above its international economic competitors. If Washington adheres to the path of fiscal restraint while following the president's tax prescriptions, it was suggested, policymakers could secure powerful economic growth far into the future.

Yet when the subject turned to the nation's legal or Social Security systems, the picture grew suddenly dark. Frivolous lawsuits have hobbled America's businesses and have put them at the mercy of their enlightened overseas competition, administration officials said. As for federal entitlements, a rising tide of retiring baby boomers will inevitably slow economic growth and bankrupt Social Security.

“The crisis is now,” Bush warned in his closing speech.

Such contradictions emerged repeatedly, pointing up the delicate balancing act that Bush faces as he tries to sell his economic proposals.

Sorry, Jonathan, but there's a name for political posturing that involves saying both 'A' and 'not-A' at the same time while trying to whip people up into supporting your political program..

Demagoguery.

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Cause or Effect?

My brother notes:

Michael Forsythe writes for Bloomberg News: “One of the best indicators of superior returns on U.S. stocks during President George W. Bush's first term was contributions to Republican candidates.

“The 50 companies that most favored Republicans with their political donations delivered an average 44 percent return on investment over the last four years, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 4.1 percent, assuming dividends were reinvested.”

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An Unusual Example of Currency Decline Harming Exports

In Macro 101 they teach you that when your currency drops, exports become cheaper, so they increase — this is one of the major factors that works to stop currency free fall. But here's an I hope unusual account of a circumstance in which one sort of export, albeit one based largely on imported parts, shrinks as a result of a currency decline:

Boing Boing: Danger, high voltage: It's common for people living in Europe to buy computer hardware in the US where prices are lower and the Euro is strong. Just don't try it with the new iMacs. An article in today's International Herald Tribune points out that the G5 iMacs sold in the US are strictly 100-110 volt, unlike every other Apple machine on the market with the exception of the eMac. Plug a new iMac into a standard 220-240 European outlet without a transformer and your motherboard will fry. From the IHT article:

It was a sudden, unexpected and little publicized change for Apple…

I asked Apple why and have not received an answer. Postings on Internet discussion boards are thick with speculation. The most likely reason is that limiting the reach of U.S. and Japanese computers is meant to help preserve European sales, where PC sales are relatively strong but the economy is weak. A company also gains if its revenue is in a more valuable currency than the one its costs are in.

Link.

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