Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

Further to my post yesterday, here's what the influential and mainstream Nelson Report (via Steve Clemons) has to say about sending three carrier groups to the Gulf:

On the other hand, increasing to three carrier strike groups would be noticeably more 'robust', belligerent and suggestive of intending or anticipating attack. The difference between two and three strike groups is huge. Two ='s strong and capable, but existing offensive intent is less probable; three ='s 'we don't care about provocation, we're preparing to fight in this new dimension'.

(An indicator would be to watch for announcements about Nimitz strike group; Nimitz reportedly has completed the routine pre-deployment work-up and is in San Diego.)

The US has eleven carriers (with #12 on the way). Sending three out of eleven to the Gulf is more than saber-rattling.

Worse, the Gulf is too small for three carrier groups to function effectively, and has one entrance/exit that is about 20 miles wide and runs along the Iranian coast. This creates a sitting duck effect — a 'target rich' environment for potential attackers. In other words, it's inviting Iran to take the bait, something that becomes increasingly likely the more that the Iranians come to believe that they are about to be attacked. (Which is undoubtedly the point of the US government media strategy.)

(And yes, the sailors on the Nimitz have been told that they are deploying “to the Middle East in April”.)

Gulf of Tonkin meet Persian Gulf.

Deep in the middle of Newsweek's article Blowup? America's Hidden War With Iran, we find this news:

A second Navy carrier group is steaming toward the Persian Gulf, and NEWSWEEK has learned that a third carrier will likely follow.

A THIRD CARRIER? That would mean, presumably, a third carrier group.

Remember when the Bush administration piled all those troops outside of Iraq and many people refused to believe they would be told to attack?

There is no way I can imagine this bunch sending three carrier groups to the Gulf unless they plan to use them. Incidentally, the Gulf is a very small bit of water for one carrier group, not to mention three. And, I worry about them being, um, targets.

Doesn't anyone remember Millennium Challenge? (Cf. Wikipedia entry)