Monthly Archives: March 2008

A Ray of Hope on FISA

House leaders plan to introduce Substantially improved FISA bill. Not a good bill, but not an evil bill either. Notably it doesn't have a telecom immunity provision. In other words, much better than anything to emerge from the Senate so far.

Could it be that the results from the recent Illinois special election — in which the losing GOP candidate tried to demagog on FISA and fell flat — have stiffed a spine or two?

Actually, the House text has a pretty clever move in it: the bill makes clear beyond doubt that telecoms may submit classified exculpatory evidence to the court reviewing the legality of their behavior notwithstanding the administration's assertion of state secrets privilege. As this alleged lack was often cited as a major reason for the immunity provision, there's one fewer specious argument available for immunity — and a lifeline for anyone who'd like to climb down from that increasingly unpopular viewpoint.

Posted in Civil Liberties | Comments Off on A Ray of Hope on FISA

Fallon Firing Fallout: Petraeus Wins

It looks to me as if the big winner in the Fallon firing (and even Steve Clemons says it is a firing) is Adm. Fallon's nominal subordinate Gen. David Petraeus. It didn't look good for Petraeus to have his boss on a different page; it revealed Petraeus's spin for what it was.

And it's important for Petraeus to look good: not primarily because he's at least a long-shot contender for the vice-presidential slot on the McCain ticket, but because Petraeus is the key to the administration's domestic strategy for the fall.

Bush desperately wants a Republican to succeed him, not just to avoid the visible repudiation but also to keep the scandals under the rug. The linchpin of the political strategy is to tar the Democrats as not just weak on defense but part of the Dolchstoßlegende (stab in the back) tendency. And the man who's going to do much of the heavy lifting for Bush is Petraeus, who's currently hoping to do another round of testimony on the Hill on or about 9/11/08 — just as the electoral season kicks into high gear.

(Why the Democrats would allow this testimony on such a charged date is beyond me, but there's no understanding the political death wishes and spinelessness of our Senators. They allowed it last year.)

[Update (3/12): I'm told this year's testimony is actually scheduled for April 8 and 9 — the dates that US forces took Baghdad and the Saddam statue came down. Another triumph of Democratic planing.]

Posted in Iraq | 1 Comment

Odds of An Attack on Iran Just Went Up

Admiral Fallon Resigns | The Agonist.

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but with Fallon there the odds were very high that an attack on Iran wasn't going to happen. Now the odds are not as high.

Update: Good comments (and great pun) at Fallon on His Sword. And see Adm. Fallon resigns as CENTCOM Commander.

Update2: Does anyone know how many carrier groups we currently have in the Persian Gulf?

Posted in Iran | Comments Off on Odds of An Attack on Iran Just Went Up

Contrary Views on Spitzer

Here are two well-written blog postings that argue Spitzer need not resign:

I'm not persuaded. I don't think Spitzer should be treated worse then the next John, which means he maybe shouldn't be prosecuted and certainly shouldn't go to jail. But that doesn't mean he belongs in the Governor's mansion.

Posted in Law: Ethics | Comments Off on Contrary Views on Spitzer

Spitzer Must Go

If the facts as we currently know them are true, NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer must resign.

As a general rule, I think that office-holders who commit crimes while in office should not continue to hold that office. (I do take shockingly bold positions, don't I?) This case seems to fall into that general rule. I admit that I have exceptions to my rule. For example, I can imagine excusing some — but only some — crimes involving entrapment, or highly technical and basically harmless violations of complex rules in the context of a good-faith effort to comply, or reliance on reasonable advice of counsel. But this case — from what we know so far — isn't even close to one of those exceptions.

The problem is not infidelity. It's not even the overweening stupidity (“worse than a crime: a blunder”). Nor even the incredible assumption that so many politicians and CEOs seem to have that the rules that apply elsewhere don't apply to them — although that gets close. The problem is that this is criminal behavior. And we really can't define our minimum requirements for public life that low and still hope to get this country out of the ditch.

The charge of “structuring” cash withdrawals seems to me the sort of technical issue I would be inclined to forgive; the suggestions of a Mann Act claim are silly on these facts; but the basic fact remains that hiring prostitutes is a crime. Maybe — maybe — it should be legal. (I don't feel well enough informed as to how 'victimless' a crime this is to have strong views; the expensive market may differ from the street, further complicating matters.) But it's not legal. And I think we must expect basic legality from public officials (and if they don't like the rules, let them lead the charge for better ones). That this particular crime is rarely prosecuted, and even more rarely prosecuted by the feds doesn't change a thing. That Spitzer once trumpeted his office's prosecution of a prostitution ring just adds hypocrisy to the mix.

Even if it this case were shown to be highly selective prosecution of a Democratic Governor by a partisan Justice Department — and we don't at present have nearly enough facts to allow us to reach any conclusions on this question — my conclusion remains firm: if indeed the facts are as we currently know them, then Spitzer must go.

(And so too should Senator David Vitter. And no doubt many others.)

Posted in Law: Ethics | 4 Comments

Special Election Results Suggest Local Races Are Very Competitive

Democrats won big in a special election in Illinois on Saturday, winning the congressional seat formerly held by GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert. This suggests a large national swing to Democrats at the congressional level. Especially around here. The Fix agrees,

Putting The Hastert Seat Loss in Context – The Fix: Those statistics got us to thinking about just how wide the Democratic target list could grow if the special election in Illinois was taken as a test case for the fall.

Looking for a way to compare apples to apples when it comes to congressional districts, we turned to our old friends at the Cook Political Report and their Partisan Voting Index (PVI). The PVI was developed by the folks at Cook in the summer of 1997 as a way of looking at measuring every district in the country against the nation as a whole. Each district was given a score — R+6, D+19 — that indicated how it performed on the presidential level when compared to the country. A score of R+6 means that the district performed six points more Republican than the country as a whole; conversely, a score of D+19 means the seat performed 19 points more Democratic than the nation. (A further explanation of PVI is behind the Cook Report's subscription wall so get one today!)

Illinois' 14th district has a PVI score of R+5. …

Florida boasts nine districts currently held by GOPers with PVI ratings between R 1 and R 5. Those nine districts are a mix of the once competitive (Florida's 8th and 12th), the occasionally competitive (Florida's 13th and 24th) and the never competitive (Florida's 5th, 7th, 15th, 18th and 25th.) Democrats have spent considerable time recruiting in Florida and are expected to put a number of these seats — including the 24th and 25th — in play this November.

But there's a fly in the ointment: Important local Democrats are too invested in being clubby with the GOP power structure — or with local sugar interests? — to give their all. Even local stars Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meeks are taking a pass on fighting for their party — and for Florida.

Not surprisingly, local activists and party workers are very unhappy.

I'm particularly disappointed in Wasserman Schultz on this one.

Posted in Politics: FL-18 | Comments Off on Special Election Results Suggest Local Races Are Very Competitive