Monthly Archives: October 2005

Wilma Remains a Mystery

Posted on October 21, 2005 by Michael Froomkin

Bottom line of the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion: We know there is a big storm and it will hit the tip of Mexico. We all agree it will head for Florida next and hit some time after 7am Monday, maybe much later, and hit somewhere in the state, at some intensity. It might be horrible. It might not be. We don’t expect to know much more until Saturday at the earliest, and probably not until Sunday. (By which point it will be too late to do much.)

IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS… THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER… THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE… AND BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER… IF WILMA DOES NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN… IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.

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Death By Detail (Miers and Her Forms)

Posted on October 21, 2005 by Michael Froomkin

In and of itself it’s more a technical error than a smoking gun, but in context this seems part of a pattern of carelessness:

Page A-26: Can you believe it? … unidentified low-level sources have revealed to Page A-26 that Harriet Miers did not provide a complete work history in her Senate Judiciary Committee questionnaire.

Sources indicate that Ms. Miers failed to mention her tenure as a member of the Martindale-Hubbell/Lexis-Nexis Legal Advisory Board.

I understand how a busy person might honestly forget even something fairly substantial such as a Board membership. I remember how much trouble I had documenting my life when I had to apply for a security clearance, and I was only 28 at the time. But that is why any well-organized person keeps their c.v. up to date — it’s a way to make sure you have a record of everything you’ve done should you ever need one. I try to update mine at least once a year. (Hmm… looks like it’s time to update it again….)

Given that one of the major talking points for Miers has been how ‘meticulous’ she is, the drip drip drip of sloppy mistakes that might well be ignored for a different nominee will in this case continue to erode her rapidly shrinking prospects.

Posted in Law: The Supremes | 6 Comments

Kissing the Pig

Posted on October 20, 2005 by Michael Froomkin

Maybe it’s a Florida thing, or a Southern thing, or maybe I just led a sheltered life and never ran into it before, but one of the ways in which it seems that Florida law students raise money for good causes is ‘Kiss the Pig’ auctions.

The way it works here at U.M. is that all of us on the faculty get a charming form inviting us to allow the use of our name in the “Kiss the Pig” auction. Students (or anyone else with an interest) can then buy entries at, say, $1 each, in the name of the faculty member they wish to be selected to kiss the potbellied pig. Entries are not transferable, but there is no limit to the number anyone can buy. Whichever victim has the most entries bought in his/her name is then joyfully announced and paraded down to the law courtyard to osculate the swine. The proceeds go to charity (here it’s the HOPE program run by Marni Lennon).

I’m afraid that I’ve so far neglected to volunteer. And now I know why: as Dean Joe Harbaugh of the Nova law school stated in banning a similar fundraiser in his law school, the whole concept is immoral because it scares and humiliates the pig.

In other words, at Nova the law professor may not mind kissing the pig, but how does the pig feel about it? Here’s the picture the Herald ran this morning.

very unhappy pig

Does this pig look happy to you? I don’t think so. At Nova, the pig was apparently terrified: ”I personally observed the animal shivering and moving its head from side to side as it looked [frantically in my judgment] at those gathered all around,” Dean Harbaugh is quoted as writing.

Now, I know some people may be tempted to argue that kissing a member of the UM faculty is a whole different thing from kissing a member of the Nova faculty. I am often willing to argue that we are the best faculty for many miles around, but when it comes to hog snogging I think we can claim no special virtue.

[Previous legal pig blogging: Legalizing Miss Daisy and Of Pigs and the Ballot Box. Florida. Gotta love it.]

Posted in Law School | 9 Comments

Wilma’s Florida Trip Will Be Delayed

Posted on October 20, 2005 by Michael Froomkin

Still heading straight for us, indeed aiming a little closer to Miami than before, but a bit slower and weaker. As Franklin put it,

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED…THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS…AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

… WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

Weaker means we can relax a little. Slower also means it gets here Sunday, if it stays on track. So,

The University will be open for business as usual tomorrow, Friday.

The University continues to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Wilma. The Crisis Decision Team (CDT) will meet again tomorrow to determine the status of University schedules for Saturday and Sunday.

They are already putting up metal shutters on the buildings, and sandbags by every door. I suppose that makes more sense than paying overtime during the weekend. It’s not actually even raining now too, which make the work easier.

Posted in Miami | 2 Comments

Miers Sinks Deeper Into Pit

Posted on October 20, 2005 by Michael Froomkin

Not only did Miers get suspended from practicing law not once, but twice — twice! (surely well aheard of the previous record for any nominee to the Supreme Court?) — but it seems, via Yahoo! News, that she is not so meticulous about filling out other forms either: Miers omitted prior business interest on Senate questionnaire (alt link direct to Chicago Tribune).

It is amazing when I am in substantial agreement with a Robert Novak column on anything, but there it is.

“The tipping point in Washington is when you go from being a subject of caricature to the subject of laughter. She’s in danger of becoming the subject of laughter.” —Bruce Fein, quoted in Newsweek.

How long before the nominator too becomes subject to the ridicule he deserves? Maybe not until he leaves, or is hounded from, office: the problem that the damage being done to this country just isn’t funny.

Posted in Law: The Supremes | 1 Comment

Stick a Fork in the Miers Nomination

Posted on October 19, 2005 by Michael Froomkin

Think Progress » BREAKING: Miers Also Suspended from Texas Bar

I’m a little sorry to see the Harriet Miers nomination sink so fast. I would have preferred it sink slowly. Very slowly. And indeed, I might have preferred it not sink at all: if we’re going to have a nominee from the GW Bush stable, better to have a sixty-year-old lightweight with some vaguely moderate items in her history than some forty-five-year-old firebrand with heavy-duty intellectual firepower. Or even a sixty-year-old firebrand.

Getting suspended from one bar, briefly, for non-payment of dues was sloppy but a little easier to excuse than the multi-year, and seemingly knowing, defaults of DC Circuit nominee and now Judge Thomas B. Griffith. Doing it twice, well, it’s not very meticulous, is it?

I know the poll numbers so far haven’t supported the neo-con pileon, but give Letterman and Leno a week or two, and I’m afraid Miers is probably toast.

Posted in Law: The Supremes | 2 Comments