Polling South Florida (July 2012)

One of the consequences of living in a swing state seems to be you get polled a lot. I’ve had five robopolls asking who I am voting for in the Presidential election in the last week. So far I’ve told the truth (not happy with Obama’s performance as President, definitely will vote for him, don’t like Romney at all & think he’s bad for the economy, I’m a liberal Democrat of a certain age).

But increasingly as I push the same boring buttons on my phone I feel the temptation to offer tactical answers. The problem, is, I can’t figure out how to shade my answers: Would it help to say I am a Republican who hates Romney? To say I’m older or younger? Would false answers be more likely to mess up the Romney or Obama decisions on how to spend their ad dollars? Do I want Romney to look less popular with his base than he is at the risk of Team Obama getting overconfident?

Of all the polls I’ve gotten this week only one was at all interesting. In addition to the usual demographic questions it asked if I was a veteran, and then what religion I was. The choices included Catholic, Protestant, Evangelical Christian [and there I was thinking that Evangelical Christians were Protestants], Jewish, Muslim, and Mormon. I picked Jewish. Then it asked me how often I go to church….

Meanwhile, regular reader Gustavo Sardina sends in the following account of a push poll he received.

Things to know (that the pollsters probably already knew), I am a registered republican, vote in every election, and live in Coral Gables.

It seems to be a push poll for Erik Fresen (my FL. House Rep.) targeted against his primary opponent Amory Bodin and went something like this:

* How likely are you to vote in the November election;
* Age?
* Party affiliation?
* How likely are you to vote in the August primary?
* Generally speaking, is Florida on the right track or the wrong track?
* What is your impression of the following people:
** Rick Scott;
** Marco Rubio;
** Erik Fresen;
** Amory Bodin;
* What is the most important issue for you in deciding who to vote for in Florida’s next election (long list of options given);
* (Here comes the obvious push poll section); “If I said the following about Erik Fresen, would it make you more or less likely to vote for him” followed by a number of questions on topics ranging from support for the Rick Scott ban on doing business with Cuba, to constitutional amendments allowing the elderly to be exempt from property taxes;
* Would endorsements from the following people cause you to be more or less likely to vote for
a candidate: Rick Scott, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio;
* “If I said the following about Amory Bodin, would it make you more or less likely to vote for him”: **Amory Bodin has never donated money to a republican candidate for elected office;
**Amory Bodin’s biggest client is a major donor to democratic candidates for elected office;
**Amory Bodin is running on a record of business achievements but was VP of a company that failed and closed owing thousands of dollars in taxes.
* What language do you speak at home?
* What is your racial/ethnic heritage?

The poll was conducted by “Opiniones Latinas.” I googled them and found that they are an arm of (or just another name for) McLaughlin & Associates. McLaughlin & Associates appears to be a political survey and strategy group listing the following among their “political” clients (I think you will see a pattern):

* Republican National Committee
* National Republican Senatorial Committee
* National Republican Congressional Committee
* Republican Governors Association
* California Republican Party
* Florida Republican Party
* Illinois Republican Party
* Kentucky Republican Party
* Montana Republican Party
* New York State Republican Party
* New York State Conservative Party
* North Carolina Republican Party
* Ohio Republican Party
* South Dakota Republican Party
* Virginia Republican Party
* Wisconsin Republican Party
* Illinois House Republican Campaign Committee
* Indiana House Republican Campaign Committee
* Indiana Senate Majority Campaign Committee
* New Jersey Republican State Senate Committee
* New York Republican Assembly Campaign Committee
* New York State Senate Republican Campaign Committee
* Nassau County Republican Committee
* Conservative Party (Canada)
* Conservative Party (United Kingdom)
* Likud Party (Israel)

Last year: I Just Got Push Polled in the Coral Gables Election

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4 Responses to Polling South Florida (July 2012)

  1. Vic says:

    Evangelicals are Protestants, but a Protestant is not necessarily an evangelical. It’s one of those if you are one, you know, situations. (I am not)

    It’s like Jewish and Hasidic. If you are a Rebbe, nobody will think you are not Jewish. But being a Jew does not mean you are also Hasidic. (for an imperfect analogy)

    • Indeed. But then you would expect the groups to be “non-evangelical Protestant” and “evangelical Protestant”.

      • Vic says:

        Possibly. But also keep in mind that the poll was likely NOT written by a religious scholar atuned to fine differences in denomination. More likely it was someone who knew that there are Catholics and there are Protestants – oh and those “Evangelicals” that people always talk about on the news…

        I doubt that most non-Christians who don’t have special knowledge of the subject would have any idea what the difference is. For all we know, the poll writer could have thought “Evangelical” was a third major division in Christianity.

  2. scl says:

    I am disappointed in the smears that the Fresen Campaign is conducting. They should first examine his own hearts first and take out the log that is in their own eye before they asail Amory.
    Amory is a man of integrigy, and above reproach.

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