Category Archives: Miami

Still heading straight for us, indeed aiming a little closer to Miami than before, but a bit slower and weaker. As Franklin put it,

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED…THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS…AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.

… WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.

Weaker means we can relax a little. Slower also means it gets here Sunday, if it stays on track. So,

The University will be open for business as usual tomorrow, Friday.

The University continues to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Wilma. The Crisis Decision Team (CDT) will meet again tomorrow to determine the status of University schedules for Saturday and Sunday.

They are already putting up metal shutters on the buildings, and sandbags by every door. I suppose that makes more sense than paying overtime during the weekend. It’s not actually even raining now too, which make the work easier.

Forecaster Franklin of the National Hurricane Center, says, in the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion,

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS…WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS…GFDL…AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION…WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE…WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA’S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS…WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE…AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME…BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED…SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY…CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK…ESPECIALLY THE TIMING…HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

I do so hate the ALL CAPS, but three things are clear:

1. They don’t really have much confidence what this storm is actually going to do. A 1650 nautical mile gap in the five-day forecast is indeed rather heroic. [A nautical mile is 6080 feet or about 1853m.]

2. Forecaster Franklin really does have a wry sense of humor. He’s much more fun to read than the other forecasters.

3. Things have come to a pretty pass when one has a favorite National Hurricane Center forecaster.

So here comes Wilma.

I woke up this morning to the radio telling me it’s already a Category 5 hurricane and it hasn’t even gone over the warm waters of the Gulf yet. And there is no number higher than 5. So it was something of a relief to see that the current forecast predicts Wilma will encounter something called “shear” at about the time it makes its strange predicted right turn Friday morning. Even so it will be “formidable” (er, what exactly does that mean?) when it comes ’round here. And the eye is currently predicted to cross not too far north of us. In fact, not very north at all. Well within forecast error. So this is not, on the whole, good.

I trust the house to withstand a major hurricane; rebuilt to the latest codes it is in theory supposed to be able to withstand over 160 MPH winds, even a weak five, although I have no desire to put it to the test, and you have to wonder what would be left of the surroundings at that point.

It would be nice if the weather service could cough up some numerical idea of what “formidable” means…although short of buying plane tickets, there’s no way I or most of the people here can do much about it. We can’t go south, there basically is no south, and the hurricane itself will be north of us. There are not many highways, and a mass exodus from Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach would make the chaos on the Texas roads look like the Indy 500.

As is traditional, I went and stocked up on dry goods this morning. I think the real panic shopping started yesterday; some of the shelves were looking quite Soviet. The Publix supermarket employees were grumbling about the extra work (“I’m not coming in on my day off whatever the hurricane does,” one humphed to another.) In addition to fighting for parking, one had to keep a sharp eye out for a shopping cart.

It’s only Wednesday, and it won’t hit until late Friday at the earliest, if at all, and people are already worried and distracted, with some reason. The chance of actual disaster doesn’t (yet) seem that large, far too many variables, although right now due to its sheer force this one looks like the most ominous one so far this year. And some part of Florida is going to get it. And, they now say, maybe even New England too, later on.

This is all very distracting.

[Obligatory Flintstones reference: this story about Bamm-Bamm isn’t true, is it?]

Ok, so from time to time there’s a serious squall. There was a lot of wind, but not much blew down that I can see from inside the house; presumably Katrina got the most vulnerable vegetation. It’s gloomy out. On the radio it sounds as if it’s considerably worse in the Keys; parts of US 1 between here and Key West were at least temporarily under water.

It might have been hazardous for people to commute to work this morning, but otherwise it’s a gloomy, seriously stormy, day.

In other words, anticlimax. As it always is when I actually get supplies in. Post hoc ergo propter hoc, eh?

We’re in full hurricane panic mode now, even though there’s as yet no hurricane (just a tropical storm):

In light of Tropical Storm Rita, the University, including the law school, will be CLOSED as of noon today, Monday, September 19th. We will remain closed tomorrow, Tuesday. The library will close at 2:00 p.m. today and will remain closed tomorrow. All events scheduled for this afternoon and tomorrow are cancelled.

Information regarding the Law School’s status, including regarding the resumption of classes on Wednesday, will be available from the following sources which are regularly updated:

The Law School’s Website and the University’s Website

305-284-4551 (Dean of Student’s – recorded message – for messages after the school closes)

305-284-5151 (UM Hotline recorded message)

We have no reason to believe that classes will not resume on Wednesday, but you should check these sources of information for updated information.

Basically, everyone is overcompensating for being suckered last time.

One slightly worrying thing, though: there’s still a lot of debris around from Hurricane Katrina. Even a mere tropical storm could pick that stuff up and fly it about which might cause damage.

I taught my class this morning then, ironically, I met with some students who are visiting here from New Orleans in order to fill them in on the key points from the classes we had held before they joined us. After that it was off to the grocery store as we’d been too busy this weekend to do our usual weekly shop. While I was pulling into lot — and waiting for a space since it was entirely full — I heard them upgrade Miami-Dade county from a hurricane watch to a hurricane warning. The TV fluffheads on the radio segued right into their WERE ALL GOING TO DIE mode, leavened by JUST DO EVERYTHING WE SAY AND YOU’LL BE OK.

Two hours later I had food, about the same amount as I usually buy, but not water, that was basically gone except the expensive stuff. No way I’m buying a case of San Pelligrino to sit out a storm. But no worry, we have a nice big blue plastic jerry can we can fill.

Then it was off to the gas station to queue and refill the gas containers that will power my generator and keep the food fresh if the power goes.

Last time, before Katrina, for the first time in a decade I didn’t prepare — and we got beat up. At the risk of jinxing the Fates, I have to say that this wobbly track still seems to be mostly south of us; more important, though, is when the strengthening is expected:

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING…AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE…BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3…AND SHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

(I wish they wouldn’t use all capitals…) Odds are we will be spared; but it’s not inevitable. It does sound bad for the Keys, though, and even worse for where it goes after it hits the Gulf.