Author Archives: Michael Froomkin

Fay

WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER…IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS…THE INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING…AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER…THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.

(from Tropical Storm Fay, Discussion Number 4)

They moved the track just enough east to make it more likely Miami gets roughed up a bit; we're now at a 50% cumulative probability to get hit by at least tropical storm level winds, up from about a third last night. Tropical Storm level winds knock down trees, cause some flooding, but other than losing power (almost none of our region's cables are buried, everyone is too cheap to pay the upfront cost, not to mention the higher maintenance), we tend to be fine. True hurricane winds do more, depending how strong they are, although the weakest technical hurricane isn't that much worse that tropical storm.

So we face two known unknowns: the track — which is always uncertain, as hurricanes zig and zag in ways we don't yet know how to predict (and a tiny difference is huge to the people underneath) — and, more unusually, great uncertainty about intensity. There's often some, but not this much. I hear via the grapevine from the hurricane experts at RSMS that the envelope of possibilities stretches up to a category three hurricane, which would be a pretty nasty one.

We filled up the car; did some shopping last night. I got some gas to run the generator. Roads seem a little busier than usual, but that could have been true just with back-to-school (public schools start Monday, as does the Law School). The gas station had no queues. We have hurricane glass now, so my major per-hurricane activity of putting up metal shutters is a thing of the past.

We don't have a giant ton of food, but we have enough to get by for several days. I feel like I should do more to prepare, but can't think what.

Posted in Miami | 2 Comments

Full Text of ‘Unfit for Publication’

“A lie will go round the world while truth is pulling its boots on.”

I always thought Mark Twain said that, but apparently it was “Charles Haddon Spurgeon (1834-1892), a celebrated English fundamentalist Baptist preacher”.

Whoever said it, that's the problem Obama is having with a scurrilous book written by one of the Swiftboaters. If you care about the truth, you can download the full text of Unfit for Publication.

Posted in Politics: US: 2008 Elections | 2 Comments

Friday McBush Bashing (Olympic Edition)

Turns out McCain's approach to foreign policy is rather more bellicose than anyone (other than a hard-core neo-con) imagined in their most horrible dreams.

Posted in Politics: McCain | 4 Comments

Video of Coral Gables in 1950

Someone sent me a link to this kicky, kitschy, video of Coral Gables in 1950, from an ad promoting Chevrolets.

Many of the scenes are recognizable today, although Parrot Jungle has moved from its wonderful nearby location.

UM features at the beginning; campus attire has changed even more than the buildings, most of which are still around if not so spanking new any more.

Posted in Miami | Comments Off on Video of Coral Gables in 1950

Please Not Evan Bayh

Rumors abound that the Obama campaign is leaning to Evan Bayh as a veep choice.

Bayh was a cheerleader for the war. He's not his dad. In fact, he's not much.

Bayh is better than Dan Quail Quayle, but at this moment I'm having trouble coming up with another compliment. He makes Joe Biden look really good.

If we must have a Senator, how about Chris Dodd? He emerged from the campaign without much if anything in the way of delegates, but he ran a good clean fight and retired from the field with honor not just intact, but enhanced.

Posted in Politics: US: 2008 Elections | 3 Comments

Mario Diaz-Balart Is Afraid

Who says Mario Diaz-Balart is dumb? In an (uncharacteristic?) display of savvy, the incumbent GOP congressman in FL-25 is busy trying to avoid appearing on the same stage as Joe Garcia, his charismatic and articulate (in both English and Spanish) challenger.

Incumbents frequently don't want to do events with challengers, on the perfectly sensible (if selfish) theory that incumbency is an advantage, and sharing a stage just elevates the opponent. And, if the challenger's name recognition is low, a debate raises it more than do single-person events, so why go there.

The trouble is, of course, that the public likes debates, and often learns from them. So even the most cynical incumbent usually agrees to a few of them.

In the case of Mario Diaz-Balart, however, there's a lot of betting that he'd get his clock cleaned in a debate. So on the one hand, he comes in with low expectations, which can help him, but on the other hand to the extent that those low expectations are justified … well, it could be bad.

So it's not a surprise to read that not only has Mario Diaz-Balart refused Joe Garcia's invitation to do a series of non-confrontational joint events (where he'd risk looking bad even by comparison), but that now “Diaz-Balart is attempting to squirm out of his promise to attend a debate organized by Spanish network Univision on Wednesday, September 17, 2008.”

Better to have voters suspect you'd lose than to actually lose. Which if you think about it, is either not stupid…or very stupid if macho Miami voters decide you're … afraid.

Posted in Politics: FL-25/FL-27 | Comments Off on Mario Diaz-Balart Is Afraid