Is This Ad Effective?

Better Angels of our Nature: Notations argues that “The first great negative ad of this campaign has surfaced.” and provides links to the Windows Media Player version, and the Real Player version.

I don't claim to have my pulse on the finger of the American television-watching people, but is this ad really that good? Or shouldn't someone at least jazz it up a bit with visuals: the flight suit, for example? One of the stills of the flag-draped coffins that just got Tami Silicio—and her husband—fired?

More generally, does Kerry win by going negative or by going positive? The John Edwards campaign (and early Dean) suggests this is a year for positive. On the other hand, Edwards didn't win.

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