It seems that my intuition that the Florida is political ground zero was if anything pessimistic. Comes now the Miami Herlad to report on its latest poll finding: Florida voters leaning toward Kerry (by a little).
The whole poll is sort of interesting. The dismal Florida legislature, whose leadership in particular is inept, grasping, and transparently bent on self-aggrandizement, gets low ratings. Alas, the legislative districts are so thoroughly gerrymandered that almost every incumbent faces no meaningful chance of losing his/her seat.
Governor Jeb Bush, whose policies are actually out of step with a majority of the state's voters (e.g. he favors cutting school spending whatever the consequences, they favor spending what it takes for small classes) gets relatively high ratings. Go figure.