How Do I Evaluate This Warning?

The Register has the Director of the Program on Terrorism and Trans-National Crime at the University of Pittsburgh (connected to this?) warning 'Expect terrorist attacks on Global Financial System'. Is this more likely than other terrorist activities? As likely? Or just sufficiently bad if it happens ('A successful terrorist attack on America's financial infrastructure could bring the US and global economies to a standstill, and the real surprise is that it hasn't been attempted yet.') that we should prepare for it even on a low probability threat analysis?

I wasn't able to find a copy of the paper on the web, so I can't go to the source and form my own conclusions. The article tells me very little. As a general matter, I tend to some skepticism about warnings from anti-terrorism experts Their incentive structure is to be scary, as this maximizes the demand for experts. I imagine that in this business you don't in that business get in nearly as much trouble for false alarms as you do for being asleep at the switch.

So, how to evaluate this warning (especially as the ad that happened to be served when I was reading had this graphic)?

This entry was posted in Politics: US. Bookmark the permalink.