Three As a Number to Reason About

Further to my post yesterday, here's what the influential and mainstream Nelson Report (via Steve Clemons) has to say about sending three carrier groups to the Gulf:

On the other hand, increasing to three carrier strike groups would be noticeably more 'robust', belligerent and suggestive of intending or anticipating attack. The difference between two and three strike groups is huge. Two ='s strong and capable, but existing offensive intent is less probable; three ='s 'we don't care about provocation, we're preparing to fight in this new dimension'.

(An indicator would be to watch for announcements about Nimitz strike group; Nimitz reportedly has completed the routine pre-deployment work-up and is in San Diego.)

The US has eleven carriers (with #12 on the way). Sending three out of eleven to the Gulf is more than saber-rattling.

Worse, the Gulf is too small for three carrier groups to function effectively, and has one entrance/exit that is about 20 miles wide and runs along the Iranian coast. This creates a sitting duck effect — a 'target rich' environment for potential attackers. In other words, it's inviting Iran to take the bait, something that becomes increasingly likely the more that the Iranians come to believe that they are about to be attacked. (Which is undoubtedly the point of the US government media strategy.)

(And yes, the sailors on the Nimitz have been told that they are deploying “to the Middle East in April”.)

Gulf of Tonkin meet Persian Gulf.

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3 Responses to Three As a Number to Reason About

  1. Chuck says:

    I know you know we know, but no one is mentioning it.

    1. According to the U.S. Govt, Iran is sending IEP’s to Iraq to be used against U.S. troops.
    2. We all know that Iran is supporting the Shia’s.
    3. We all know that the Sunni’s hate our guts, the Shia’s guts, and Iran’s guts.
    4. So, are we to believe:
    a. The Shia’s are getting the IEP’s from Iran to kill U.S. troops?
    b. The Sunni’s are getting IEP’s from Iran to kill U.S. troops?
    c. The Shia’s are selling their IEP’s to the Sunni’s to kill U.S. troops?

    I don’t see how Iran could be sending bombs to Iraq to kill U.S. troops, unless it’s the Shia’s who are the ones who are planting and exploding the bombs.
    If the Shia’s are doing it… why are we staying in Iraq to help the Shia’s stabilize the country and establish a “democracy” so they can get things together and get better at killing us?

    Can anyone explain HOW ( to whom ) the Iranians are giving their IEP’s ?

  2. Ummm… as I write right now, the “sailors on the Nimitz” link is showing a local election story…

  3. Michael says:

    See the next-to-last paragraph, where it says, “Francis, also serving in the Navy, and his wife, Jenifer, are based in the San Diego, Calif., area. Francis is stationed aboard the USS Nimitz and will be deploying to the Middle East in April.”

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