Zogby’s Electoral Vote Predictions

Zogby's electoral vote predicitons, found at The Big Picture: Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004, paint a surprisingly cheerful picture for Sen. Kerry.

Projected Electoral College Vote, 2004 (as of February 26, 2004)

Blue States Elect.   Red States Elect.   States in Elect.
(Kerry) Votes   (Bush) Votes   Play Votes
CA 55   AL 9   AZ** 10
CT 7   AL 3   CO** 9
DE 3   AK 6   FL** 27
DC 3   GA 15   MN* 10
HI 4   ID 4   MO** 11
IL 21   IN 11   NV** 5
Iowa 7   KS 6   OH** 20
ME 4   KY 8   OR* 7
MD 10   LA 9   TN** 11
MA 12   MS 6   WA* 11
MI 17   MO 3   WV** 5
NH** 4   NE 5   WI* 10
NJ 15   NC 15      
NM 5   ND 3      
NY 31   OK 7      
PA 21   SC 8      
RI 4   SD 3      
VT 3   TX 34      
      Utah 5      
      VA 13      
      WY 3      
               
Total 226   Total 176   Total 136

*Was Blue state in 2000
**Was Red state in 2000

Table: Zogby International

Key things to note: (1) if this is right, Kerry needs only Ohio and Florida to win; (2) far more states carried by Republicans in 2000 are up for grabs than states carried by Democrats. That's partly because the Republicans won a lot of razor-close ones. But it also reflects buyer's remorse.

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68 Responses to Zogby’s Electoral Vote Predictions

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  2. Debra says:

    Zogby is smoking crack. If Tennessee went Republican against a moderate Democratic presidential candidate from Tennessee four short years ago how can it be thought to be in play when a southern Republican incumbent president is opposed by a Massachusetts senator who votes to the left of Teddy Kennedy??
    Osama Bin Laden would have a better chance of winning Tennessee, at least his position on all of the issues is consistent.
    How much money does anyone want to place on this one???

  3. paul says:

    Bush will win 32 – 35 states. There is no way a northeastern liberal like John Kerry can win ANYWHERE apart from New England, the West Coast, and possibly 2 to 3 Great Lakes States.

  4. Jim says:

    I agree with Zogby’s assessment here. The blue states are pretty m uch unchanged. Bush has done little to win the hearts and minds of say California voters or Iowa voters, these states will vote for Kerry, and will vote by at least a 4-7 percent margin in Kerry’s favor. Tenn is a toss-up, if you remember 2000 TN barely voted for Bush and yet was considered a Republican stronghold. So Gore almost won something that usually votes Republican anyway. This time around, I think TN will favor Bush, but not enough to put it in his column right away, hence it is a toss-up state. When I look at the list of toss-up states, Bush is going to have a tough time coming up with enough to surpass the 270 mark. MOst in the toss-up column went to Gore before and will most likely go to Kerry again…If Zogby’s map is true as I think it will be, we’ll have a new president most likely…barring any supreme court action or whatnot. lol.

  5. Ted says:

    IN THE NOTES ABOVE SOME DIM WIT WROTE THAT BUSH WON MANY STATES BY RAOR THIN MARGINS. HELLO…LOOK AT THE RESULTS AGAIN. FLORIDA WAS REALLY THE ONLY STATE THAT BUSH WONE THAT WAS CLOSE. ON THE OTHER HAND GORE WON NEW MEXICO, IOWA, OREGON, AND WISCONSIN BY VOTES THISCLOSE. LOOK AT YOUR FACTS!

  6. Michael says:

    NH (1.3% =n 7,200 votes!), TN (3.8% = 80,000 votes), NV (3.5% 22,000 votes), Mo (3.3%), OH (3.5% ). Cf. http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

  7. Bayard says:

    What the heck is this?! Gore was from TN and couldn’t win the darn state. Kerry isn’t competing there and he doesn’t stand a chance. As for Colorado, maybe Zogby should recall how wrong they were in 2002 when their polls showed the Democrats about 7%pts above what they actually turned out on election day. Finally, why isn’t PN in play? Everybody else has it within the margin of error, and all signs show Bush has strengthened support in the southern part of the state. NH is another state that Zogby screwed up on pretty big-time in 2004, and I don’t think any polls in that state have Kerry ahead by more than a couple points. I’ll put money that NH, even though Kerry might get it, is closer than NV on election day. This is not impressive.

  8. Jim says:

    This looks relatively close to me. I wouldn’t place NH in the Kerry column, lot of flow over from Mass in the 2000 election. We are far enough away that reports today put NJ back in play as the economy there is recovering rapidly. FL won’t be close, solid red. The reports there that it is close are as valid as the reports that the 02 governors race was, a 4 point GOP win regardless of the running mate Kerry chooses. It is my opinion, that Bush will carry 33 states picking up Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and possibly Oregon with a NH loss. There is long time to go yet but I don’t see this as that close.

  9. jesse says:

    I disagree. Zogby is not smoking crack. But they are smoking a lot of weed ; and that will cloud the synapses of an otherwise thinking brain with a historical good record of perspicacity. I think Zogby is on a wishful thinking trek based primarily on the hopes that Bush gets ousted and a president friendly to the Palestinian cause gets elected. Zogby is American although of Arabic origin and I think his loyalties are showing. Why even the Washington Post showed great numbers for the Bush/Cheney team. Can you imagine that ? Zogby still gave them terrible #’s. When its all said and done, if Zogby doesn’t go to rehab and kick whatever is clouding its judgement, they will not have the confidence they once had from the american public.

  10. Andy says:

    I agree with the states that Zogby picked for Kerry and Bush victories… if Kerry picks a southern Democrat like Edwards for his running mate, I think the following swing states will result as follows:

    AZ – Bush
    CO – Bush
    FL – Kerry (Let’s face it… Gore won FL in 2000 and a cover up ensued… won’t happen this time)
    MN – Kerry
    MO – Bush
    NV – Kerry
    OH – Kerry
    OR – Kerry
    TN – Bush
    WA – Kerry
    WI – Kerry
    WV – Bush

    Kerry will destroy Bush. And even if he doesn’t pick a southern Dem., he’ll still dominate in swing areas like the Pacific Northwest and the midwest.

    Face it folks, anyone with half a brain is sick of Bush and his lies. He needs to go and be a one-term “war president” like his father.

  11. Dan says:

    I think alot of people here are speaking bull when they don’t really understand how the election went last time. Florida wasn’t close, Gore won it! The problem is that the congressional black caucas was unable to get a Senator to sign papers stating how thousands of black voters were denied the right to vote. The reason being is that no Senator wanted to lose their job, or be smeared by the media. The truth in Florida was that thousands of black voters were denied the vote, there were no instructions on the butterfly ballot on where to put your vote, so a lot of people ended up voting for the wrong candidate, and the day before the election Zogby released a pole stating Bush had a slight lead, though every other poll in the nation had Gore winning around 50% to around 40%. And those other states you ask? For example the hippies in Oregon decided to try and give Nader a state. Thus they syphoned enough votes from the Democrats to their Green Party Purposes. This time it won’t happen, Nader doesen’t have the money or the organization to pull something like that. I predict a election with Kerry taking Ohio, Florida, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, and possiblly Arkansas

  12. John hood says:

    Andy,

    I hope you like taxes……………..

  13. Rob says:

    READ THIS & THINK….
    America DOES NOT need John Kerry building a giant government to waste everyones time and money. The government does very little well, SS is going bankrupt, as is medicare, welfare has failed, and on and on. Why do we want more mediocrity, we should expect excellence in America and the evidence throughout history shows that the government is not going to provide excellence, just mediocrity. Why do we want the rather inept type of people at the IRS or the DMV to control more of our lives. Bush will do damage, but less damage than Kerry. Kerry would push socialism and taxes to a new level, more giant government doing nothing effectively, carefully, or efficiently, just feeding itself endlessly like a retarded gorilla.
    The result of Two VERY weak candidates.……

  14. JBo says:

    I am so sick of hearing about the poor black voter being denied in Florida, or anywhere else for that matter. Black people have just as much opportunity to learn to read and follow instructions as white people, Hispanic people, or anyone else. Are you saying here that black people are dumb? I don’t believe they are…and it is getting old that the democratic party tries to use the poor, “dumb” black people as a crutch. Get with the program…black people are not stupid, and one day they will wake up and realize that the democratic party was screwing them all along.

  15. Jimbo says:

    Zogby’s a nutcase anyway, his polls are the least accurate predictions around. Being from, and currently residing in Ohio though, I will say this. Kerry will NOT win the state of Ohio. No matter how close it gets, I will guarantee right now that Bush wins my state. If Kerry wins Ohio, I’ll throw up

  16. Chris says:

    er, those who associate Kerry with “big government” should contrast Bush (and his deficit spending) with Clinton and other predecessors. Under Bush, federal spending has increased at its fastest rate in 30 years, and that’s including a non-defense discretionary growth that’s 1/3 again greater than the highest rate under Clinton or the elected president Bush, #41. See http://www.independent.org/tii/content/press_rel/press_040624.html for more.

    That’s not to say that a Kerry government would be much better if Dems regained control of Congress, but with a Democratic president and a Republican congress, you can bet that the government will do better at controlling the growth of “pork” payments with the parties checking each other. As is, the Repubs are throwing more and more taxpayer dollars at the federal government, and nobody’s checking anything.

  17. Larry says:

    I voted for Bush, but he lost my support when he showed no faith in the free market, no inclination to balance the government’s books, no need to tell us the truth about Iraq, and no real concern about felons in his own administration. If I was a liberal I would be apopleptic about him, as in fact many liberals are. But since I’m a moderate/libertarian, I’m just plain disappointed. Kerry will be getting my vote, no doubt about that.

  18. D.B. says:

    Larry is not a moderate. He said he would vote for the most liberal ticket in the last 100 years! Kerry is for higher taxes; big government programs like a national heathcare policy; he is for late term abortions, any abortions; he is not for capital punishment; he supports the UN dictating to us what is important; Kerry is for gay marriage; he is for no mention of god anywhere anytime; Kerry is for discrimination against people that are not of the minority, he supports affirmative action; Kerry is for big unions who raise the cost of goods for consumers. Liberal is as a liberal does. John Kerry is a liberal! …and Larry you’re no moderate! If you support John Kerry you are a liberal and you support the liberal agenda.

  19. Talbert says:

    Bush doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell. He will beat himself. And the 9-11 report is gonna kill him. Worse still, Bush cannot debate worth a flip. Kerry will wipe him clean in the debates. As for Chaney, Edwards will make mince meat of him in the debate.

    The war in Iraq is going miserably, spelled V-I-E-T-N-A-M all over again. Many voters remember Vietnam, and this is going the same way.

  20. Adam says:

    Kerry has stated time and again that he supports a tax cut for 98% of America. I’m a little tired of people who claim every mainstream democrat (which is all of the senators except Kennedy and Harkin) are ultra-liberal. Kerry had a liberal voting record in 2003, a year when virtually every bill on the table was centrist or conservative due to the republican majority. Kerry’s lifetime voting average is considerably less liberal, not that anyone should mind being compared to FDR, president during our finest hour and probably the most popular president in history.

    Also, Kerry is against gay marriage, he’s said so a thousand times. He’s also against using a constitutional amendment to strip states rights – states currently have the authority on the issue. Remember when conservatives believed in states rights?

    Kerry is widely known as a deficit hawk, another centrist position held by many conservatives. Deficit spending is essentially taxing us twice as much later for money spent today. And since I don’t believe in the Rapture, I want a president who will cut the deficit so my future taxes and my children’s taxes won’t go 100% to paying off interest on our nation’s debts.

    Furthermore, if we maintain clean air quality today, the amount we and our business spend on doctor’s bills and sick leave will be greatly reduced tomorrow. Environmental protection is vastly cheaper than environmental cleanup. So, as you can see, Kerry’s agenda is the one that will provide the next two decades worth of economic growth. Bush will set up the next economic crisis when we get the bill for environmental cleanup, baby boomers’ social security, and the national debt. And when we fight the next front on the war on terror, we’ll have no one left to support us and no money to pay our troops. The choice for anyone making less than $200,000 a year is obvious, unless they are very paranoid about some kind of perceived homosexual invasion or are unable to remember the 10 commandments and thus need them posted everywhere they go so they can check whether God allows people to commit murder or not. Other than that, Bush’s social agenda is just a smokescreen that doesn’t actually affect most people at all.

  21. joebob59 says:

    IMO Zogbey’s Red and Blue “givens” are pretty close, although I wouldn’t list ME, NH, NM, and VT as absolutes for Kerry. I also wouldn’t be too quick to to pencil in PA for Kerry, but organized labor (i.e. Phila) should prevail over center-state farmers so it should stay blue. As for the swing states, I see absolute Reds as AZ and MO, and likely Reds as FL, TN and WV.
    I also see absolute Blues as OR and WA, and a likely Blue as MN. I see CO and NV as possible surprises for Kerry and WI as a possible surprise for Bush. It all comes down to one state IMO: Ohio. It could be the sealer. The northern/eastern industrial/rust belt region (again, labor) should back Kerry, while the Cinti-Columbus-Dayton voters (high-tech/military) and rural farmers should back Bush. The toss-up for the balance of votes in Ohio will come from areas with smaller economies: the Portsmiths, Zanesvilles, Steubenvilles, Troys and the like. Places where light manufacturing/assembly jobs can make or break an area. Word of mouth can go a long way, especially with wireless and internet as widespread as it is. No wonder the candidates are targeting these small cities. Wish I still lived in Ohio; it may decide the election.

  22. Dave says:

    I’m an Ohio resident and I’m also attending Case Western Reserve University, the site of the Vice Presidential debates. A few questions to conservatives:
    First, would any conservatives out there who attend a church allow the US government to post the US Constitution up by the Altar? If not then why should you be allowed to post the Ten Commandments in a US Court?
    Second, if big government is bad as Rob said on July 13th why is Bush still supported even though he has created an ENTIRE NEW branch of the bureaucracy, signed a bill making demands on schools, has expressed support on the constitutional gay marriage ban telling states how to run themselves, and has increased government spending to new highs?
    Finally, to Jimbo a fellow Ohioan, I don’t know where you live but maybe you need to talk to a few more people than just those in you town because I’ve seen more support for Kerry all over the state than you may think. What info do you base your call on Ohio on? I’d really like to know.
    We made the wrong choice in this state in 2000 but personally I think the entire election is going to come down to states that are below everyones radar. States like Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona will decide this election, they total 20 EVs the same as Ohio. Just because a state has many EVs doesn’t mean it will matter who wins it, for example Texas.
    I’d love to debate anyone, liberal, moderate, conservative, or other on any of the issues of this election. Please email me at Krankor2@aol.com if you have anything constructive to add.

  23. tom says:

    I am now firmly convinced that any pollers, Zogby included, who are looking for insight into the November election have to zero on the “Anyone but Bush” contingent. They are a weird mix of philosophy, age, race, gender and income. This is the group folks – not the banner wavers for Bush, not the undecideds and especially not the “united” front supporting Kerry.

  24. Lee says:

    It’s is Kerry’s to lose — and he won’t. Bush bungled the war and will be held accountable whether or not he admits responsibility. When the economy is roaring, voters will forgive a lot. Right now the great economy is just a concept to most people. It hasn’t translated into money in their pockets yet, but the higher gas prices are an immediate reality. I doubt Bush could win if he pulls Bin laden out of a hat in October. Change is in the wind.

  25. Jim says:

    Kerry’s going to win…and win big. I see Kerry taking somewhere in the 300s in electorals.

    I predicted Ohio State over Miami 2 years ago, I predicted Pistons over Lakers, I predicted Clinton over Bush in 92.

    It’s that simple. Want to earn some money, vote on the big Kerry to send Bush back.

  26. KAREN ANDERSON says:

    IF KERRY WINS I WILL LEAVE THE COUNTRY
    DID ANYONE OUT THERE CATCH THERESA’S SPEECH? IF SHE DOES NOT HURT HIM MAYBE THE FACT THAT HE IS A FLAKEY LIBERAL WILL!!!
    GO GWB!!!

  27. Tommy says:

    Ok for those who think Gore won FL on 2004, please refer to the independant recounts performed by the New York Times, Washington Post, and LA Times. All three, liberal media outlets, showed that Bush did actually win Florida in 2000. Now I am not saying he will carry it in 04, but people get over it. Gore did not win in 2000.

    Also for those comparing Vietnam to Iraq, your dumb. Ask any vietnam vet. Iraq is no Vietnam. In Iraq almost 1000 United States and international forces have lost there life in 18 months. Now granted no loss of life is just a number, but please research Vietnam. Do you know how many United States young men lost their life. It was more then 1000 a month. And please remember how many civilians lost their life on Sept. 11th. Taking the war to the “Islamic Right” is the way to approach this. I’d much rather some guy with a suicide vest try approach a group of marines with heavy weaponary then approaching a group of civilians carrying groceries in a NY City market.

  28. John says:

    My Prediction: Kerry will win (barring any unforeseen circumstances of course). Most electoral polling websites I’ve seen from both sides of the political spectrum agree that Kerry has about 280-300 and Bush 200-230. Kerry will get CA, OR, WA, and NM on the west, all of new england on the east, and has built up a six state north-central wedge pushing down from MN, WI, MI to include IA, IL, MO, and threatening AR and TN (Sorry, I was using a reference map with state initials). Now anyone knowing anything about the Republican party knows Bush will get every state from Idaho in the Northwest on down through Texas (except NM), then across the south under Kerry’s wedge, and finally up through Indiana. Mostly all of these states are, in my opinion, already decided one way or the other leaving just four left: Florida-27, Ohio-20, Virginia-13, and West Virginia-5.

    Let’s face it people Bush will win all four, most likely by razor thin margins. Yet my point is it won’t be enough and Kerry will win 275 to Bush’s 263. By losing the support of those six central states Bush will lose the Whitehouse. Anyway that’s just my opinion.

  29. R.L. says:

    NO WAY IS BUSH GOING TO LOSE. Anyone who says otherwise is a puerile idiot! First of all Bush won Florida fair and square, no matter how much you dang liberals want to skew the truth. I’m from Kansas, a place where true American and Christian values abound, where we support a culture of life (yes a fetus is life!) and the family unit is preserved from perverted homosexuals and their self destructive lifestyle. Wake up you socialists on the coast, here in real America real Americans form the silent majority of our great nation, whose conservative values of liberty, democracy, and equality before the law are unmatched any ware else in the world. Need proof, look at which party is dominating both houses of Congress, which party has the most state governors, and which party holds/will hold the presidency. That’s right, the Republican party, and with our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ guiding it through people like Reagan and Bush, the Republican party will continue to lead America’s fight for freedom against islamic terrorists, european socialists, and mulatto drug dealers despite constant opposition from you atheistic special-interest pandering liberals. Bush for four more years!

  30. Chris says:

    RL,
    If you value “liberty, democracy, and equality before the law” and consider yourself a conservative, then you’d be advised to sit this election out (at least if you can’t bring yourself to vote for a liberal). There is no conservative candidate who shares your values on the slate this year. Neo-cons are not conservatives, and the sentiments you profess approval of are in short supply in the Bush administration. Read the torture memos, and the memos where the President accepts that he has king-like power to ignore law as he sees fit.

  31. Eric says:

    After the Republican convention check the numbers again. Everything will be a little clearer.

  32. Karl says:

    Hey R.L.
    If you honestly believe in what you wrote above then I feel sorry for you. What does R.L. stand for anyway Rush Limbah or something? You and others like you are what’s wrong with America, you diehard conservatives have trouble seeing the world through other people’s eyes. You think just because you believe in God and Christianity that they should be the focal point of our society (oh wait who does that remind me of, that’s right the Islamic terrorists who you hate so much). By the way, not all terrorists are Islamic, not all liberals are socialists, and who do you think you are calling all drug dealers mulattos! Hell if it was up to you and your friends you’d probably bring back slavery, take the vote away from women, and burn homosexuals at the stake. If people like you support Bush then thank God he’s on his way out!

  33. Ron says:

    Seems to be plenty of comments about the Democratic “giant government” myth? Interesting that the collective “conservative” memory is not only short but very selective…

    Don’t we have massive deficits? Don’t we have a relatively new bureau with 170,000 federal employees who’s sole existance seems to be the obsession with color charts, false alarms, duct tape and plastic sheeting…?

    And where’s Colin Powell? Should tell you something about this administrations foreign policy when the Secretary of State doesn’t show up to the party convention?

    And where’s Osama? Should also tell you something when this administration leaks the name of an al-Quida computer expert (Mohammed Kahn) who was leading the Pakistani’s right to al-Quida’s desktops?

    Given all of this, why would anyone doubt these poll numbers?

  34. ti says:

    Ok, If you watched the democratic convention, you will see Kerry is weak and about to self destruct. All of you liberal dems out there, face up to this! No liberal has ever gotten elected by beiing their true self not even your star Bill Clinton. Fact is liberals have to lie about who they are to get elected. When the election ends, don’t be surprised by the Bush landslide victory. When Kerry can’t win more than 20% of a democratic primary, he’s the one in trouble! The GW train is rolling and yes we will win FLORIDA AGAIN! Also, Let’s talk about thousands of military voters not counted. I don’t see liberals protesting that. Finally, If by some miracle Kerry wins, Get ready for a leader who will make Iraq another Vietnam and a leader who is needs to take a poll to make decisions. Oh, and what’s gonna happen when Kerry is caught in his lies about the boat? And as far as gays getting married, instead of coming out of the closet, they need to do some cleaning! GO GW BUSH, and Go RUSH for exposing these loosers for what they are.
    TI

  35. George says:

    I think Bush has a chance of winning Iowa and new mexico! Remember Pat Buchanan won’t be there to take his votes , but nader will be on the ballot! I am an independant and will vote for Bush because I think dems are weak on defense!

    close states who I see winning!
    Kerry
    Michigan 17
    Washington 11
    Florida 27
    Oregon 7
    pennsylvania

    Bush
    Ohio 20
    West Virginia 5
    Missouri 11
    Tennessee 11
    New Mexico 5
    Nevada 5
    Colorado 9

    Too close to call
    Iowa 7
    Wisconsin 10
    Minnesota 10

  36. George says:

    I think Bush has a chance of winning Iowa and new mexico! Remember Pat Buchanan won’t be there to take his votes , but nader will be on the ballot! I am an independant and will vote for Bush because I think dems are weak on defense!

    close states who I see winning!
    Kerry
    Michigan 17
    Washington 11
    Florida 27
    Oregon 7
    pennsylvania

    Bush
    Ohio 20
    West Virginia 5
    Missouri 11
    Tennessee 11
    New Mexico 5
    Nevada 5
    Colorado 9

    Too close to call
    Iowa 7
    Wisconsin 10
    Minnesota 10

  37. George says:

    I think Bush has a chance of winning Iowa and new mexico! Remember Pat Buchanan won’t be there to take his votes , but nader will be on the ballot! I am an independant and will vote for Bush because I think dems are weak on defense!

    close states who I see winning!
    Kerry
    Michigan 17
    Washington 11
    Florida 27
    Oregon 7
    pennsylvania

    Bush
    Ohio 20
    West Virginia 5
    Missouri 11
    Tennessee 11
    New Mexico 5
    Nevada 5
    Colorado 9

    Too close to call
    Iowa 7
    Wisconsin 10
    Minnesota 10

  38. Citizen says:

    Bush is going to lose and it will not be the cliff hanger that’s being predicted. His internals are very bad forcing him to go negative even before the convention. His military support is softer than usual for a republican president. NH, PA and MI are gone, he’s behind in FL, barely even in OH and WVA and weaker than expected in NC and VA. He can still pull out MO but it will not be enough. Bush had planned to campaign mostly from the Rose Garden but he’s been forced into the corn fields of Iowa running after Kerry. (BTW, he’s behind in Iowa too.)

    ——–

    Try the new 2005 no-CARB diet: no Cheney, no Ashcroft, no Rumsfeld, no Bush—and absolutely no Rice!

  39. David says:

    What do mean that far more states that Republicans carried in 2000 are up for grabs and they won several by “razor-thin” margins? Gore won Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin by a whisker in each. Even Minnesota only went for Gore by 2.5%. He couldn’t even win his home state.

  40. RonZ says:

    Bush was born in CT so he didn’t win his home state either. He also lost the total popular vote by 1/2 million. He will lose by a lot more this year.

  41. Steven says:

    Do you Christian Conservatives actually think Jesus would vote for GW Bush. Fellow Christians have got to remember who Jesus aligned himself with, the sick and the poor. So was Jesus the first liberal?Liberal is such a stupid word when used derogatory.Being a progressive isn’t as bad as most conservatives make it sound.
    I’m a fellow Christian who is certaintly voting for John Kerry in 2004. I don’t see how any Christian with a soul could vote for Bush, a man who doesn’t care about the poor or sick or disadvantaged. Bush represents the corruption and evil that America represents to the rest of the world. Don’t get fooled in 2004. Kerry is the only choice we can make in 2004. And if he doesn’t do the job in his 4 years well we can vote him out in 2008. But i’d give him a chance since Bush had his and flubbed miserably!Think the mistake in Iraq, millions of job losses, the economy, escalating gas prices, and loss of respect by the rest of the world.

  42. lamo_gop says:

    Achhh… why worry? TN for Bush… TN for Kerry… it’s not like it matters much how the “people” vote. Bush has the two biggest players on his team: Diebold, Inc. and the Supreme Court. It’s the most potent one-two punch, I think, in the history of democracy. Imagine, the vote counters and the referees firmly in your corner. I look forward to at least 24 more years of Bush as he ages in office over the many years to look more and more like the Evil Emporer in Star Wars. Ah yes, “… the shields will be quite operational when your friends arrive!”

  43. lamo_gop says:

    Late response to Karen Anderson (posted on Aug. 9)

    Bye, sweetie! Where y’ gonna move to? I can’t think of anyplace quite like America for white, right-wing, “Christian”, (quotes intentional and meaningful… designating irony and sarcasm) xenophobes like yourself and R.L.

    If the format of your fanaticism isn’t too important to you (and it shouldn’t be) you could go to Iran or Yemen… maybe Saudi Arabia… Hmmm. Saudi Arabia. There, at least, you could maintain a comfortable relationship with many Bushies. Maybe be a house-guest of the Bin Ladens.

  44. gerry says:

    I think after the last three days of the convention Kerry should be giving mouth to mouth to his pet mouse Edwards. As a staunch republican i would even vote for Zell miller after his speech last night. I can’t wait after the election this year when Bush wins by a landslide to hear all the whinning form the libs on the left. You people make me laugh Waaaaa.. Gore Waaaa.. swift boat. You call yourselfs for free speech when you want to stop the swift boat vets. Waaaaa.. you big babies go move to Canada or France where your Kerry can fight a pussy war with the terriosts…

  45. Chris says:

    Gerry, your parody of a modern neocon had me rolling in the aisle. Too funny! The neocons will be mightily displeased that you portray them as so ignorant and incoherent, but what the hell.

  46. SMB says:

    All depends on turnon, particularly in the urban areas. Gore carried only 20% of us counties but racked up totals of 75-90%, skewing the results. If all states adopted the Nebraska/Maine plan whereby electoral votes are awarded by district (plus 2 to popular vote winner) the results would be more accurate (Bush would have received 290 electoral votes). I see two states that went for Bush last time (NV, NH) possibly reverting. I see five that went for Gore (NM. IA, WI, OR, PA) possibly changing. As we speak/write, Bush is slightly ahead in all the states mentioned above except NH and OR.

  47. alan says:

    It’s in the cards folks. When it comes down to the final wire, kerry will win. Bush will be back in Crawford, or Crawdad, whatever it’s called and we will have a new president this time. You can go to the bank on it. Remember, it’s in the cards. Has been for a long time, no matter the silly polls now. They aren’t accurate.

  48. DFuller says:

    The biggest joke was when Bush said in his acceptance speech “His policies of tax and spend — of expanding government rather than expanding opportunity — are the policies of the past. We are on the path to the future — and we are not turning back.”

    Bush has increased the tax burden faster than any president in history. He has increased government spending by 27% in only three years. His spending increases of $147.2 billion in 2002, $146.7 billion in 2003, and $211.1 billion in 2004 (estimate) are the three largest in history.

    As far as jobs is concerned: Bush predicted that his 2003 tax reallocation to future generations would produce 5.5 million jobs by the end of 2004. So far, they have produced only 1.6 million. He is short by almost 4 million jobs. He also said that his 2001 tax reallocation would produce jobs. Since that tax reallocation took effect, 900,000 jobs have been lost.

  49. KurtS says:

    It’s funny how the libs have stopped talking about issues and the election, and can now only throw out insults, conspiricy theories, and inaccurate information. Your arguments are not based on any facts, just the hatred of a man. It strikes me as funny that the unemployment rate is the same now as it was when Bill Clinton was Reelected. It seemed that the media was happy with those numbers when a lib is in office. Please educate yourself on the facts before you speak and quit repeating the misinformation of the kerry camp. He only says what other Bush haters want to hear.

  50. DJR says:

    You see when Kerry had his convention there was to be a boost and if there was I guess I needed a microscope to see it. Now that Bush has had his convention there has been quite a boost (no microscope needed) and I do not expect it to completely hold but say he retained 25% of his convention boost (and he could retain quite alot more than that) that would be enough for him to win the election. It will turn out to be a landslide for Bush; I have no doubt. Even CNN has Bush taking large leads in key battleground states.

    Going to war in Iraq was also the right thing to do. Look how many people have so much more freedom than they did under hussein. The left wing media will show you one story where there is one person that does not like what happened and treat it like that is how all of Iraq feels.

    President Bush and His administration did the RIGHT thing in Iraq.

    GodBless!

  51. lamo_gop says:

    It really is nice that you think the Iraqis have more freedom now than they did. All except the hundreds of thousands either dead, maimed or whose families and/or homes have been destroyed forever. Nice you can dream that they are walking along shady lanes with white picket fences practicing ameri-christianity. If only Norman Rockwell were alive to paint that picture for your next issue of Saturday Evening Post! Ah well… keep dreaming because they can never take that away from you, huh? Dogbless you too.

  52. prorep says:

    It is amazing to see so how many people are fuzzy about the issues.

    For those who vote for bigger government – you will choke on your tax bill.
    For those who think Suddam Hussein was a harmless madman – stay away from NY and large events
    For those who think SS is a good idea – start putting 7% of your own money in savings every year
    For those who think Medicare is a good idea – start putting 6% of your own money in savings
    For those who think government spends wisely – send extra money with your tax return (double it!)
    For those who think its government of the people – stop dreaming, judges & politicians control it all
    For those who think they make better decisions with their money than government – vote Republican
    For those who think you can fix government by voting Republican – do a write-in vote.

  53. rich says:

    Talk about fuzzy thinking!

    There is no bigger government than the Big Brother/ Homeland Security / “Patriot” Act stuff we have had rammed down our throats.

    I’ve never heard anyone say that Sadaam was a “harmless madman”. I think you “fuzzed” that out of hearing people say that Sadaam was not a threat to the U.S. In fact, and I do mean fact, he was not a threat. Please don’t make the case that he was, since you represent no others’ viewpoints by doing so. Even the administration has conceded that. There was no reason to spend billions to undo him while Bin Laden goes free. Sadaam had nothing to do with 9/11 if that’s what you mean by NY. (don’t know what you meant by ‘large events’).

    Social Security is a great idea, and one that, until the SS trust fund was raided (shall we discuss this one?) worked very well. Talk to the unfortunate people who have had their investments stolen by crooked fund managers and corporate raiders e.g. United Airlines employees… (I could name a hundred more instances)… Those unfortunate victims are happy they at least have their SS.

    I don’t know anyone who thinks government spends wisely, it’s just that if people were driven by goodness and charity, the government wouldn’t have to step in to protect the naive and poor of spirit from the devious, crippling greed of the bottom-line, bottom feeding CEOs. Ken Lay for the best example among many.

    If you think Republicans are so wise with money, please refer to Haliburton’s no-bid, 8 billion dollar contract to rebuild Iraq… then refer to Iraq. Then look at the Clinton surplus (money in the bank) and then look where it went and when… you don’t spend everything in the bank when you don’t know what tomorrow will bring. The Republican party used to be the party of fiscal conservatism. It has been hijacked by screaming idealogues and is now the party of fiscal, social and every other kind of extremism, and to paraphrase Barry Goldwater “extremism in the defense of selfish ideology is no virtue”

    Fuzzy thinking? You must be a sign painter who thinks in one line epithets. Here’s a few… “More is Less!”… “Freedom is Slavery!”… “Continuous War!”… sound familiar? Read 1984.

  54. Thomas Giannou says:

    Vice President Chaney did a good job of thashing Edwards in the debate tonight. I couldn’t believe the piece of goofy nonsense that Edwards proposed about how to lower medical costs. Have you taken a look in the Yellow pages of the phone book and noticed how many attorney’s are present in each of the major US cities? The three stikes rule and you can’t represent another malpractice client is only going to be quickly filled by another attorney. This is a prime example of the total out of touch with reality incompetence present with Kerry and Edwards. That’s no solution to the problem at all. What a childish suggestion he made.

    Kerry and Edwards are out of touch with reality. They don’t have a clue that Europe is set against the USA and has been that way since after the end of the cold war. All through the Clinton administration, Europe has been making substantial financial investments in Iraq. They ignored the UN sanctions against Iraq. When the President went to the UN after 911, about Iraq, he forced the European countries to show their hand. Several years before President Bush was elected to office, Europe had been drawing away from the United States and views the United States quite negatively.

    Just as the Clinton administration screwed up the economy before handing the reins over to the Bush administration, they allowed quite a rift to develop between the USA and the EU. Kerry and Edwards are out of touch with the reality of this rift between the USA and the EU. It’s absurd for Kerry and Edwards to think and keep on saying that they can establish a better relationship with France and Germany.

  55. Dear All:

    Here’s a simple math question that explains the very meaning of chaos. We all know that any even number can be divided exactly by 2. An example is the number 538. Divide by two and you get 269 each.

    The sum X = X1 + X2 = 269 + 269 = 538.

    Now, let’s assume that 538 is divided into two unequal parts. There are obviously many different ways of dividing 538 into two unequal parts. Some examples are:

    X = X1 + X2 = 538 = 379 + 159
    X = X1 + X2 = 538 = 370 + 168
    X = X1 + X2 = 538 = 525 + 13
    X = X1 + X2 = 538 = 489 + 49
    X = X1 + X2 = 538 = 486 + 52

    All such divisions of 538 have been observed and have had a great impact on our lives. Anyway, given the many different ways of dividing 538 into two unequal parts, what is the probability that 538 can be divided into two exactly equal parts of 269 each? That’s question number one.

    Now, in the real world things can get a bit more complicated than this. For example, let’s assume that X1 and X2 can be expressed as sums subject to the following constraints.

    X1 = x1+ x2+ x3 + x4 + x5 + x6 + x7 + …….. xj
    X2 = y1 + y2 + y3 + y4 + y5 + …………..yk

    A constraint is placed on the indices, j and k. These two indices must always add up to 51, i.e., we must also satisfy the constraint j + k = 51.

    If X1 is made up of 25 parts, then X2 is made up of 26 parts. If X1 is made up of 20 parts, then X2 is made up of 31 parts, and so on.

    Does this math problem have any practical significance?

    I will leave it up to you to figure that out. Let me will simply add that I have indeed found a way of dividing 538 into two exactly equal parts, after imposing the additional constraints on X1 and X2, as noted above.

    And, what might happen when such a division of 538 into two exactly equal parts does occur? I predict CHAOS, CONFUSION, or what is the same a lot of ENERGY turning into ENTROPY. In fact, Max Planck and Albert Einstein develop quantum theory (between 1900 and 1905) using the notion of energy E, entropy S, and temperature T, which are related by T = E/S. I think we can extend these ideas to many other problems as well. The problem of dividing the number 538, subject to the constraints noted here, is just one of many.

    The higher the temperature T, the more the number of ways in which the same “average” state will be observed. However, energy, entropy, and temperature are related and this means the amount of “chaos” also depends on the amount of “energy” in a system and its temperature.

    Let me now disappear at least for the next 18 days. Have fun.

    Laxmanan

  56. George Iskay says:

    Bush 41 would make a great president again. Bush 43 is too much of a religious zealot, too right wing and too much in bed with the in-bred gun toters from the South and mid-west. Where is Reagan when you need him? John Edwards may have no soul (he really is a hateful creature), but I’m voting Kerry. And, if Ohio does (it will)… Kerry wins!

  57. Don says:

    Chaos V.J., it would be the utmost in anarchy. Friends and neighbors fighting over their fences if that number splits in half. For, if that number splits in half then George W. Bush will be the first President to be “selected” President of the United States twice. Four year ago the US Supremes selected George W. Bush….in defense there did need to be something resolved….and this year if that electoral total splits then the House of reps picks our pres…..and they are Republican. So, like I said….anarchy…not chaos.

  58. John Lozinski says:

    The rich investment magazines that are republican seem to think Kerry will prevail. As an observer I see many people who earn under $200,000 a year who plan on voting for Bush. Not only is this a disaster for our economy and jobs but also for our children. I am a consultant who has seen consulting rates for educated people be cut in half while tuition for our children in college runs rampant. When I graduated from Boston college tuition was $2,600 a year it is over $34,000 a year now. My parents as professors earned $40,000 a year combined and my wife and I certainly do not earn $400,000 plus a year now. We must stop giving tax credits to companies for sending work overseas. I am even getting in on it and partnering with a Ukrainian firm as my wife can charge less in her software business by using foriegn labor, this must stop! It needs to be taxed and Americans need to be paid fairly. WE MUST STOP ALL H1B VISA engineers in the USA! We are loosing jobs, there are fewer consulting positions and H1B VISA people with masters degrees work for $26,000 a year and for 60 hours a week. Then they do not go Home when the visa expires. LET US DEFEAT BUSH. I voted for him last time but am smart enough to realize he is destroying the America I love. Let us create good jobs for our children who are graduating from college. If you make under $200,000 a year do yourself a favor and vote for Kerry. He is not perfect but you will be better of in 2008 if he is elected! My wealthy friends will vote for Bush and I understand.

  59. Barb says:

    Looks like Bush’s snowball in hell is surviving fine, hell has frozen over, his snowball is rolling along, picking up momentum, and turning into a landslide….knocking the liberal press down, carrying on full steam, by the power of honesty, good values, good goals, that rises above the false promises, empty spin, low morals of the opponent. No way will this country be better with Kerry–another Clinton. If we’re to be a light on a hill, we’ll need some morals, values, honesty, and real compassion, and that definitely spells George Bush as the man of the hour.

  60. Ed says:

    I only have one thing to say to you Barb.

    “There will not be any casualties in Iraq”.
    -George W. Bush to Pat Robertson

  61. Mark says:

    I AM SICK AND TIRED OF ALL THE “LIBERALS HATE AMERICA” AND “BUSH IS GONNA STOMP KERRY”. AS WELL AS “KERRY IS GOING TO STOMP BUSH” AND “ALL CONSERVITIVES DO IS LIE,LIE,LIE.” SHUT UP. IF AMERICA EVER BREAKS AWAY FROM THE “TWO-PARTY SYSTEM” AMERICA WILL HAVE NOT ONLY MORE CHOICES, BUT BETTER POLITICANS, A BETTER EVERYTHING. THINK ABOUT IT. MANY PEOPLE DON’T LIKE KERRY OR BUSH. MANY PEOPLE ALSO DON’T THINK ABOUT WHAT THEIR CANDIDATE STANDS FOR, THEY JUST VOTE FOR THAT CANDIDATE BECAUSE HE/SHE IS A REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT. I ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO GO OUT THERE, CHANGE THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM, GET RID OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, AND VOTE. THANK YOU.

  62. Mark says:

    I AM SICK AND TIRED OF ALL THE “LIBERALS HATE AMERICA” AND “BUSH IS GONNA STOMP KERRY”. AS WELL AS “KERRY IS GOING TO STOMP BUSH” AND “ALL CONSERVITIVES DO IS LIE,LIE,LIE.” SHUT UP. IF AMERICA EVER BREAKS AWAY FROM THE “TWO-PARTY SYSTEM” AMERICA WILL HAVE NOT ONLY MORE CHOICES, BUT BETTER POLITICANS, A BETTER EVERYTHING. THINK ABOUT IT. MANY PEOPLE DON’T LIKE KERRY OR BUSH. MANY PEOPLE ALSO DON’T THINK ABOUT WHAT THEIR CANDIDATE STANDS FOR, THEY JUST VOTE FOR THAT CANDIDATE BECAUSE HE/SHE IS A REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT. I ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO GO OUT THERE, CHANGE THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM, GET RID OF THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, AND VOTE. THANK YOU.

  63. JackieB says:

    If we can ever get to at least a 3-party system, that would be nice. Mark, you seem to have it right. I don’t like either one. Nader, scarily enough, makes too much sense on to many issues.
    Our federal government needs to do just a couple of things: defend us all, represent us all, arbitrate interstate relations, provide a supreme court system and SHRINK! Let the states handle the rest.
    BUSH nor KERRY can get us going in that direction, because they don’t care and/or don’t think it is necessary. But until the system really starts hurting enough of us, it is not going to change.
    History has repeated itself, because we are in many ways in the same condition as the roman empire in the 1st century, and headed for the toilet.

  64. carrie says:

    after reading the posts i am not suprised by the anger in defending little W…its been so long since the neocons have had someone to support their beliefs and all their righteous upchuck…i mean the death penalty and abolishing abortion…oh and lets not forget the homosexual invasion…fearful people are always extremist…pick up a gun first…lets not work it out or listen to all the sides of an issue…there can not possibly be a compromise…no we have to follow the Christian law…its either that of we are evil and are going to hell…i personally follow that guy Jesus…you know the one…he saved people from execution and oh yeah was friends to the poor and sick…and even the wealthy ones too…i remember reading somewhere it said …love your neighbor as your self…for some strange reason i thought that meant help eachother and take care of everyone…i guess those programs like SS,welfare,medicaid,medicare,habitat for humanity,peace corps,red cross…maybe those are just social suicide like the neocons say…it couldnt possibly be that us liberals really care about everyone kinda like that Jesus guy…i thought for some reason that we had religious freedom in the united states…where we could all worship as we see fit…i thought somewhere in the constitution we had that separation of church and state…did i miss the change somewhere…send me the link please…i have gotten confused as to where we have now said its ok for the ultra cons to force their religious views down the entire worlds mouths…claimed that that way is the only way… so we now sit at the universal dinner table with our big cowboy boot feet on the table cleaning our big gun…how appropriate…im not hungry so ill skip dinner… ill get off the neocon express at the next stop…the polls

  65. Philip Yob says:

    Yes I think a lot of people on here are like completly uninformed. A you cannot go by what Michel Moore tells you, let us remember the guys desnt think that the terrorist attack was all that bad, and yes he did say this. B) Bush Inhereted the clinton resession, C) For all of you out there that think Bush’s tax cuts are all that bad, lets take a look Kerry just wants to reduce the breaks for the rich, he does not plan on changing the tax cuts that are already inplace for the middle class, also he is lowering the roof on what is middle class, any household with a joint income of over 130,000 dollars would have a reduced tax cut. D) The social Security issue, Bush does not plan on taking all of the money out of social security, he said 2 to 3 % so you then take that 2 or 3 percent put it in govermental mutal funds and bonds, when u turn 55 it will have compounded to make you atleast an extra 130,000 dollars, all at the same time social security is around so you will have that money as well.

  66. Melissa says:

    VOTE!!! Get out and VOTE today. I thought it was trashy this morning to see all the political signs outside of my polling place. I felt like kicking them all down. I arrived early (5:30 AM to be exact, and the line was already tremendously long!) Just vote for the best candidate. I have faith, and I am praying continuously. I personally believe it’s going to be “FOUR MORE YEARS!!!”

  67. Melissa says:

    VOTE!!! Get out and VOTE today. I thought it was trashy this morning to see all the political signs outside of my polling place. I felt like kicking them all down. I arrived early (5:30 AM to be exact, and the line was already tremendously long!) Just vote for the best candidate. I have faith, and I am praying continuously. I personally believe it’s going to be “FOUR MORE YEARS!!!”

  68. Now that the election is over and we know the result, it certainly appears that Zogby turned into a Democratic shill during the campaign. His credibility is suffering. Ha ha.

    —–

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