The Straight and Not Narrow: It’s quite strange how the magnitude of the Democratic victory has been downplayed. After the 1994 election, the cover of Time showed a charging elephant, and the headline read “GOP stampede.” Indeed, the GOP had won an impressive victory: in House races, Republicans had a 7 percentage point lead in the two-party vote.

In 2006, Time’s cover was much more subdued; two overlapping circles, and the headline “The center is the new place to be.” You might assume that this was because the Democrats barely eked out a victory. In fact, Democrats had an 8.5 percentage point lead, substantially bigger than the GOP win in 1994. Also, the new Democratic majority in the House isn’t just larger than any the Republicans achieved over their 12-year reign; it’s much more solidly progressive than their pre-1994 majority.

Of course, given that the Dems continue to behave like a minority party in Congress….

It's as if the biopsy results just came back and you don't have cancer after all. You're not giddy, exactly, but you can finally take a deep breath and maybe let some of the tension drain out of your shoulders. The future remains uncertain but you can begin to imagine it as something other than relentlessly bleak.

Cheery bunch, aren't we?

And, yes, my predictions that (a) Allen would litigate and (b) the national party would encourage it both appear to be wrong. The report is that the national guys decided the case was unwinnable and didn't want two months of bad press. (But maybe my read of Allen wasn't all that far off?)

The action now moves to how many judges and how much evil legislation this administration can try to rush through the lame duck Senate. First up -- the warrantless wiretapping bill?

I expected lawsuits nonetheless, but the rumor mill is strong that the national GOP wants Allen to pull out to get the election off the front page -- and to avoid the "sore loser" tag. I remain a little suspicious -- it sounds like the sort of Rovian head fake I've come to expect.

But suppose the news is right. What kind of Senator has Virginia got?

I supported Webb enthusiastically because Allen was so awful. And Webb's platform wasn't so bad given that he's a recent convert from the GOP. That said, he's a hard man to like; although much easier to respect.

In my optimistic moments I think Webb will be an interesting, if occasionally uncomfortable, Senator; perhaps even a free thinker a little in the Daniel Patrick Moynihan mode, although not so pyrotechnic in his public playing with ideas because Webb just doesn't seem as comfortable with people. A Senate full of independent principled intellectuals with real-world experience would be a fine thing. What happens when you throw one or two into the snake pit is harder to call.

Both Jon Tester and Jim Webb have won their races in Montana and Virginia but want to make sure that every vote is counted. We expect to have official results soon but can happily declare today that Democrats have taken the majority in the U.S. Senate.

Montana Vote Situation: Jon Tester leads Conrad Burns by approximately 1,700 votes (as of 11am EDT) and counting. In Silver Bow County (Butte), a Democratic stronghold, votes are still being counted but Tester is winning there with 66% of the vote. We expect to gain the majority of these uncounted votes and to add to Tester's margin.

Montana Process: When the counting phase is completed, a canvass will verify the vote tallies. That process could take as long as 48 hours, and must begin within three days and end within seven. Unless the canvass shows the margin to be within ¼ of 1%, there is no recount. As the loser, Burns would have to request the recount. When the votes are all counted, we expect to be outside that recount margin.

Virginia Vote Situation: Jim Webb is up by approximately 8,000 votes and once the provisional ballots are counted, we expect Webb's margin to increase. (Please note that VA absentees were included in the tallies from last night.)

Virginia Process: A canvass is underway to verify the results and we expect that process to finish within a day or so. To be in recount, the margin needs to be less than 1% and Allen (as the loser) would have to request it. Because of Virginia voting laws, the margin would have to be much tighter than it currently is to see any change in the outcome. Given the current margins, that is highly, highly unlikely.

Democrats have a resounding victory in the House -- gaining about 30 seats even before the dozen or so too-close-to-calls get called. And this in the face of the routine gerrymanders.

The Senate hangs by two threads, one in Virginia, one in Montana. I don't pretend to grasp what on earth is going on in Montana, but if this is to be believed, there's a decent chance Tester -- one of the most attractive candidates this year -- will pull through. Virginia, I suspect, is going to be litigated whatever happens. Even if the Democrats were to lose both contests, a four seat gain is a big victory. And the Democrats will control the Senate after 2008 unless something very odd happens in the Presidential election which contaminates the downballot.

Potentially even more important in the long term are two tectonic shifts signaled by this election.

The first is that the GOP is being reduced to a predominantly Southern party. Democrats have a lock on New England and I foresee greater gains in the West. That makes the mid-west the major battleground -- and this election suggests that the mid-West may be reverting to its historically Democratic leanings.

The South is not as different from the rest of the country as it used to be -- although it is more evangelical -- so being Southern-dominated is not the albatross it once was. Nevertheless, regional dominance of any sort is not a recipe for national success. And evangelical dominance is not a national vote-winner in this Elmer Gantry moment.

The second shift is internal: the new model Democratic party is much more populist than it was last week. Just as the GOP has lost some of its nastiest and stupidest representatives (along, yes, with a few good ones) such as Tom DeLay (by resignation), "Count" Chocola, and Pombo, so too the Democrats elected to the House are by and large smart, insurgent, outsiders.

They are mostly anti-Iraq, (too?) suspicious of free trade, pro-consumer, and pro-health care. They tend libertarian on social issues, although the picture here is more mixed. They will help move the party caucus outside of the comfortable Beltway consensus which has threatened to dominate it. Many owe their elections to Howard Dean's 50-state strategy which was overwhelmingly vindicated in this election. Others owe their funding to the 'netroots' -- bloggers llike myDD, Firedoglake, and DailyKos. And they know it.

So when establishment Democrats like Rahm Emmanuel join forces with Republican commentators to explain how the Democratic vote was really quite conservative, take it for the spinning and wishful thinking that it is. Because while far from powerless, the establishment wing of the Democratic party just got significantly less relevant. And they know it too. They just don't want us to know it.

27 Democratic Gains
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell v. Hayworth
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords (Kolbe open)
CA-04 Jerry McNerney v. Pombo
CO-07 Ed Perlmutter (Beauprez open)
CT-05 Chris Murphy v. Johnson
FL-16 Tim Mahoney (Foley open)
FL-22 Ron Klein v. Shaw
IN-02 Joe Donnelly v. Chocola
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth v. Hostetler
IN-09 Baron Hill v. Sodrel
IA-01 Bruce Braley (Nussle open)
IA-02 Dave Loesback v. Leach
KS-02 Nancy Boyda v. Ryun
KY-03 John Yarmuth v. Northup
MN-01 Tim Walz v. Gutnecht [Yay!]
NH-01 Carol Shea-Porter v. Bradley
NH-02 Paul Hodes v. Bass
NY-19 John Hall v. Kelly
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand v. Sweeney
NY-24 Michael Arcuri (Boehlert open)
NC-11 Heath Shuler v. Taylor
OH-18 Zack Space (Ney open)
PA-04 Jason Altmire v. Hart
PA-07 Joe Sestak v. Weldon
PA-10 Chris Carney v. Sherwood
TX-22 Nick Lampson (DeLay open)
WI-08 Steve Kagen (Green open)

2 Democrats Leading but NOT Declared

CT-02 Joe Courtney v. Simmons - UP 200 with 97% in
PA-08 Patrick Murphy v. Fitzpatrick - UP 1500

2 Democratic Incumbents Not Declared BUT are Ahead

GA-08 Jim Marshall - UP 1800 with 99% in
GA-12 John Barrow - UP 3300 with 96% in

Headed to a Runoff

LA-02 Jefferson v. Carter - 30% v. 22%
TX-23 Bonilla v. Rodriguez - 48 v. 21%

Democrats Behind But Not Declared

NM-01 Madrid down 1300 w/ 99% in
OH-02 Wulsin down 2200 w/ 100% in
OH-15 Kilroy down 1300 with 100% in
PA-06 Murphy down 2400 with 100% in
WA-08 Burner down 2700 with 31% in
WY-AL Trauner down 800 with 99% in

Democrats Elected in Safe Seats

FL-11 Kathy Castor
GA-04 Harry Johnson
HI-02 Mazie Hirono
IL-17 Phil Hare
MD-03 John Sarbanes
MN-05 Keith Ellison
NJ-13 Albio Sires
NY-11 Yvette Clark
OH-06 Charlie Wilson
OH-13 Betty Sutton
TN-09 Steve Cohen
VT-AL Peter Welch

The incredible thing is that the Green candidate (who?) has gotten over 1% of the vote -- almost twice the margin now separating Webb and Allen. Shades of Ralph Nader all over again.

In addition, the margin of victory will be well within the margin of theft and voter suppression.

Images swiped from Needlenose. Click each picture for a larger image