May 01, 2008

Report From the Annette Taddeo Campaign Office Opening Party

taddeo.jpgThe Taddeo for Congress (Florida’s 18th District) campaign had a party yesterday evening to celebrate the opening of its new headquarters and I went along to see … partly because they invited local bloggers, partly from nostalgia — back in the day I worked on three different Congressional campaigns, topping out as the press secretary for one in Northern Virginia.

It was a good event, and marks a hopeful start for what must be, despite everything going for it, an uphill campaign. The Taddeo for Congress office is located at 11509 S. Dixie Highway, in the Suniland Shopping Center. It’s not visible from the street as it is tucked behind a giant Starbucks. (Back in the day, you sited your campaign HQ near donuts so you could feed the volunteers. Now I guess they buy their own lattes.) The offices occupy a space bifurcated by the pleasant pedestrian alley that runs down the side of the Starbucks. They’ve set up one side for volunteers, and the other side is for the staff offices. (The volunteer side used to be occupied by my favorite local computer repair shop, Get Your PC Back, which has moved inconveniently further south.)

So far there are six paid staff members on the Taddeo campaign: Anastasia Apa, the campaign manager, who I gather grew up in the area and has done political work in Florida and elsewhere; Ross Cohen, the Deputy Campaign Manger, a recent veteran of Afghanistan but still very young-looking, two finance people who seemed on the ball, a PA for the candidate, and Mario, the first campaign intern. They’ve also got some energized volunteers, including one formidable young lady who Taddeo in her speech recognized as being almost full time and who indeed had an admirably proprietorial air towards the HQ.

I saw a lot of good things: the crowd was enthused, the Herald and one TV station showed up, the candidate did well (more on this below), the offices seem usable, and the location is as good as anything for this unbelievably spread out gerrymander of a district that runs from the southernmost tip of the Florida Keys, up through Homestead, a bit of Kendall, some Pinecrest, grabs my neighborhood near the University of Miami, keeps running north to hit some of the more traditional Cuban blocks to north of the Tamiami Trail, and then zooms east to include some of Miami Beach.

I also saw some signs of an office that is still teething: they have stickers but not buttons or yard signs (I want a yard sign!) and they don’t have a press person, so the TV camera filmed the candidate against a blank background instead of one with a flag and/or a big campaign sign. (And all you find under the “issues” tab on their web page is “coming soon” — couldn’t we have at least a set of bullet points? I’ll even offer to write them.)

The race has to be the most uphill of the three South Florida Congressional races in which serious Democratic challengers are taking on Republican incumbents. Joe Garcia — who turned up to lend his support — has the most national glitz, and maybe the best chance of the three given the limited popularity of his opponent in FL-25. Raul Martinez (FL-21) has his machine. What does the Annette Taddeo campaign have? It’s got the American Dream, the idea that there comes a time when regular folks stand up and run for Congress because the nation is running in the wrong direction. And it has a photogenic candidate with a great personal story.

Taddeo’s speech was pretty good, and perhaps more affecting for seeming a little unscripted. It started strange to my campaign-practiced ear — rather than launching right in, Taddeo sounded almost tentative at first, saying that the decision to run had not been easy. She had wondered about whether “to go against someone who has, in some cases, done a good job”. (What’s this, praising the arch-villain?) But, Taddeo said, “I saw some things that were just not going in the right direction.” As a businesswoman, she became concerned about the economy; and then there was the war — and here’s where Taddeo energized the crowd. Ros-Lehtinen, she said sadly, supported the war every step of the way. Then, her voice emotional rather than angry, Taddeo said “we need to get out of Iraq and get our soldiers out of Iraq.” The crowd clapped loudly.

Any Democrat running against a die-hard Bush supporter like Ros-Lehtinen can expect to be pilloried by the right wing for urging a pullout. But Taddeo has a pretty good comeback: her late father, she said, fought in WW2 and Korea. “I recall how angry and upset” he was about the war and about the use of WMDs as an excuse for the invasion. “I’m sure he would be proud of me now” for stepping up to oppose this war. “I know he is watching me.”

Anyone who tries to wrap themselves in the flag against this woman will have to contend with her father’s approval beaming down from Heaven. It could work.

Sounding angry for the first time, Taddeo said that the thing that ultimately convinced her it was her turn to try to give something back to the country was “when my opponent voted against children.” (Note to the campaign: this is a good line. Use it often. Find a half dozen other sound bites like it.) This third issue is — or should be — a major one for this district which, while it has a few rich neighborhoods also has more poor ones. Ros-Lehtinen voted again and again against SCHIP. How can we spend $250 million a day for the war and not provide health care for poor children, Taddeo asked. How can a rich country like ours put parents to the choice of paying the rent or buying medicine, or paying for their child’s hospital bill.

Here again, Taddeo had a good personal story: she was born with a cleft palate. Her parents cared for her; and she can feel what it must be like for a parent to not be able to help a child. (It didn’t hurt that a very pretty little girl of two or three, who I took to be Taddeo’s daughter, had been upstaging the candidate earlier as she chatted with attendees.)

Then we got the pitch. And while this candidate may be a beginner, she’s got that part down very well. The current gimmick is to ask 209 people to give $20.09 — to show that people who can’t afford more still care about the campaign for the country’s future. And, of course, those who could Contribute $2009 or even to max out were encouraged to do that too.

Joe Garcia said something about how he envied the nice offices, and Taddeo shot back, “That’s what happens when you put a businesswoman in charge!” It was nice to see a hint of steel. Dave Patlak, who ran in 2006, was there (sporting an Obama pin), and he led the crowd in chants of “Taddeo Today, Taddeo Tomorrow” which got a laugh at first, then had everyone joining in.

The Taddeo campaign officially kicked off on February 26th, and in less than five weeks it took in more than $325,000 — although looking at the numbers, I have to think that a serious chunk of that came from the candidate herself rather than donations. For comparison, Raul Martinez , who got an earlier start, raised $615,000; Joe Garcia raised about a third of a million from donations.)

Unfortunately, at the close of the most recent reporting period, Ros-Lehtinen reported $1.72 million cash on hand after raising $880,000 since the last election. That’s a cash mountain. Make her spend it all, Annette!

The 18th is reputed to be a safe seat for the GOP; it was certainly drawn that way. But is it really so safe any more? Our district has changed in the last decade. The Cuban vote is not monolithic, generationally or attitudinally. My Cuban neighbors hate the war. Ros-Lehtinen has an opponent who is articulate, passionate without being hostile, Hispanic, female, and raised six figures in four weeks. Uphill, yes, but a real contest to look forward to.

Posted by Michael at 11:41 AM | Link | Comments (4)

March 24, 2008

Open Season on Wasserman Schultz

Blogs from all across the land are piling on to Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz today.

As a result, she’s staged a very small retreat, nicely summarized by Flablog, as

Wasserman Schultz clarifies: She’s only going to passively-aggressively oppose Democrats running for Congress.

The fact is, she earned this abuse fair and square. But given that DWS is one of the more reasonable congresspersons in the state, and would probably be a better Senator than Bill Nelson — he voted for torture, she wouldn’t — I can’t say I that the current feeding frenzy fills me with joy. But she earned it.

It’s important for state Democrats to stop taking the party for granted.

Posted by Michael at 04:36 PM | Link | Comments (1)

March 20, 2008

Wasserman Schultz Deserves Her Bad Publicity

According to Blast Off!: My date with Debbie, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz isn’t happy that some local blogs have been beating up on her for her stab in the back of our three strong local Democratic Congressional candidates.

Well, I’m sorry, but I’m with Daily Kos: Why we fight, or, why Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a problem: if she has a leadership role in the DCCC, not to mention Senatorial ambitions, this just won’t do.

Update: More about this from Daily Kos. I think the nickname “Debbie Dubya” may be a little harsh, but I understand why people are upset about this.

Posted by Michael at 12:00 AM | Link | Comments (3)

March 11, 2008

Special Election Results Suggest Local Races Are Very Competitive

Democrats won big in a special election in Illinois on Saturday, winning the congressional seat formerly held by GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert. This suggests a large national swing to Democrats at the congressional level. Especially around here. The Fix agrees,

Putting The Hastert Seat Loss in Context - The Fix: Those statistics got us to thinking about just how wide the Democratic target list could grow if the special election in Illinois was taken as a test case for the fall.

Looking for a way to compare apples to apples when it comes to congressional districts, we turned to our old friends at the Cook Political Report and their Partisan Voting Index (PVI). The PVI was developed by the folks at Cook in the summer of 1997 as a way of looking at measuring every district in the country against the nation as a whole. Each district was given a score — R+6, D+19 — that indicated how it performed on the presidential level when compared to the country. A score of R+6 means that the district performed six points more Republican than the country as a whole; conversely, a score of D+19 means the seat performed 19 points more Democratic than the nation. (A further explanation of PVI is behind the Cook Report’s subscription wall so get one today!)

Illinois’ 14th district has a PVI score of R+5. …

Florida boasts nine districts currently held by GOPers with PVI ratings between R 1 and R 5. Those nine districts are a mix of the once competitive (Florida’s 8th and 12th), the occasionally competitive (Florida’s 13th and 24th) and the never competitive (Florida’s 5th, 7th, 15th, 18th and 25th.) Democrats have spent considerable time recruiting in Florida and are expected to put a number of these seats — including the 24th and 25th — in play this November.

But there’s a fly in the ointment: Important local Democrats are too invested in being clubby with the GOP power structure — or with local sugar interests? — to give their all. Even local stars Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meeks are taking a pass on fighting for their party — and for Florida.

Not surprisingly, local activists and party workers are very unhappy.

I’m particularly disappointed in Wasserman Schultz on this one.

Posted by Michael at 10:12 AM | Link | Comments (0)

February 27, 2008

Annette Taddeo Offical Campaign Launch

I neglected to note that Annette Taddeo officially launched her campaign yesterday. I would have loved to go, but it happened during a class. Here's the press release.

Annette Taddeo officially announced her candidacy for Congress in Florida's 18th Congressional District today at Congressman Dante Fascell Park in South Miami. Taddeo was joined by supporters, elected officials, family and friends.

Taddeo kicked off her campaign for change. "I am here today, asking for your support in our quest for a new direction - not just in Washington, but here at home as well, because South Florida needs leaders who can be independent, inclusive leaders who will be bold and bi-partisan, both courageous and compassionate", said Taddeo.

Taddeo spoke specifically about issues she plans to focus on during her run for Congress. She said she would work to balance the nation's budget, protect the environment and slow global warming, improve access to affordable and available healthcare, and bring our troops home safely from Iraq. "My campaign for change will be about focusing on the issues that matter, and on sharing solutions about how we can create a better community and country", stated Taddeo at the announcement.

Taddeo says she is running because she wants to make a difference for the people of the district, and believes the time is right with the electorate ready for new leadership.

"We have heard the people's desire for change, for leaders who will work everyday in Washington to improve life here at home, for a change in the way the powers that be do business in Washington, and for leaders who will work to create a government that works for all of us", said Taddeo.

The results last night from New York state suggest that no Republican is safe anywhere this year.

Update: Similar result -- Democratic upset -- in the special election for Florida House District 32.

Posted by Michael at 09:15 AM | Link | Comments (0)

February 12, 2008

Herald Article on Annette Taddeo Online

In South Florida Democrats Field Strong Congressional Candidates I noted that the Herald’s print article on Annette Taddeo didn’t seem to be on the web site.

It’s up now — perhaps because I wrote in asking what happened to it? — as Ros-Lehtinen latest to face a challenger.

Posted by Michael at 09:21 PM | Link | Comments (0)

February 10, 2008

South Florida Democrats Field Strong Congressional Candidates

The Miami Herald’s Metro section today has a big article on Annette Taddeo’s plan to challenge Ileana Ros-Lehtinen for the Florida’s 18th congressional district. (Official Annette Taddeo for Congress web site.) Goodness knows that the incumbent has been a terrible representative for us: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen relentlessly for the war and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen routinely puts ideology above South Florida’s economic interests.

[Other relevant past posts: Who Will Run Against Ros-Lehtinen? (All Politics Is Local) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Admits She Lied, But Doesn’t Apologize.]

There is something strange, even unique, about the Herald’s article, however: it is not available on line. I have never before encountered a Metro section piece that I wanted to link to that wasn’t available online for at least a week. No idea if it’s human error, some new policy, or something special.

Meanwhile, some of the details are at Eye on Ileana: Annette Taddeo’s bid for District 18 is now open.

Needless to say, I’m delighted that IR-L has drawn a serious challenger, although anyone would have to admit that it will be an uphill struggle.

Meanwhile, good things are happening in neighboring districts: local political operative and popular long-time Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez is challenging Lincoln Diaz-Balart in the 21st.

Even better, local Democratic star Joe Garcia announced he’s running in District 25 against Mario Diaz-Balart. (Official Joe Garcia for Congress web site.) Here’s a piece of the TV coverage:

We’re in for interesting times, a taste of which can be found in TheHill.com’s Sensing Cuba shift, Democrats target trio of House Republicans in Florida.

Posted by Michael at 04:34 PM | Link | Comments (0)

November 16, 2007

GOP in Danger Even Here

According to a diary at Daily Kos, there’s a move afoot to draft Joe Garcia, one the best local Democrats, to run against Mario Diaz-Balart in the 25th district. What’s more, there’s talk of drafting someone to run against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen here in the 18th!

It would be the year to try it. And she’s seriously out of touch with this district, gerrymandered as it is.

Previous posts:

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of the Eighteenth District of Florida Votes Against Health Care for Poor Children

Who Will Run Against Ros-Lehtinen? (All Politics Is Local)

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Admits She Lied, But Doesn’t Apologize

Posted by Michael at 12:01 AM | Link | Comments (1)

September 26, 2007

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of the Eighteenth District of Florida Votes Against Health Care for Poor Children

How sad it is to be represented by a Republican with such a safe seat that she can vote against her community’s interests.

Final Vote Results for Roll Call 906: Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of the 18th District of Florida voted against the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act which would have expanded the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). In other words, she voted against insuring another four million kids who lack health insurance because their parents simply don’t make enough money to pay for it.

Florida has an estimated 658,000 uninsured children. This bill would have provided health insurance for about 240,000 of them (down from the larger number in the original Democratic version of the bill). But even that one-third increase was too much for Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who toed the GOP party line that effective government programs must not be allowed to grow, for fear that people might start to believe that government can actually help them.

What a terrible, terrible vote. It’s not the childrens’ fault that their parents are poor. And the amount of money at stake is remarkably low in the grand scheme of things — compared to tax cuts for the richest Americans for example.

Will no one rid of this representative who votes against our interests?

[Update: cf. Who Will Run Against Ros-Lehtinen? (All Politics Is Local).]

Posted by Michael at 12:09 AM | Link | Comments (2)

February 01, 2007

Two Related Political Items

Two items with a connection.

First, my Congressional Representative, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, endorsed McCain for President.

Second, McCain today embarrassed himself (or, if you prefer, further sullied the remaining shreds of his good name) at the confirmation hearing of Gen George Casey to be Army Chief of Staff. McCain’s, by buying into the BushCo line that although The Decider™ made all the decisions, it was the evil vizier, Gen. Casey, who is responsible for the debacle in Iraq.

McCain isn’t going to be President. I don’t even think he’ll be the nominee, although I’m less sure of that. I am sure that they’ll be nothing of him left by the time he gets the nomination, and that he’ll have depleted his greatest asset—the press’s infatuation.

Welcome, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, to the sinking ship.

Posted by Michael at 05:25 PM | Link | Comments (0)

December 23, 2006

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Admits She Lied, But Doesn't Apologize

About as un-graciously as humanly possible, my Congressional representative has admitted that she's a liar, and that she slandered filmakers last week when she accused them of doctoring tape to put words in her mouth.

Last week, Ros-Lehtinen was still denying that the tapes showing her calling for Castro's assassination were accurate, and was accusing the filmmakers of doctoring the tape. Then they released the raw tapes, and we found out who was telling the truth. And it's not Ros-Lehtinen.

U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen admitted on Friday, through a spokesman, that she did call for the death of ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro during an interview with a British documentary-maker whom she had earlier accused of altering the video.

''Yes, it's in the documentary, she said that,'' said Alex Cruz, the congresswoman's spokesman.

Ros-Lethinen did not want to respond further, Cruz said, because "she's focused her energies on issues that are more important for the community.

''Neither she nor I have seen the raw footage, without editing, but if that's in the documentary, she said it,'' Cruz said.
Having wrongly and cravenly accused the documentary makers of the most serious professional misconduct, Ros-Lehtinen is waiting to see how the wind blows before deciding if she has to apologize:
''Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has made a very serious accusation against the documentary's crew,'' [director Dollan] Cannell said. "Her accusation is totally false and I would like her to retract what she said and to apologize.''

Cruz did not respond directly to whether Ros-Lehtinen plans to apologize to the director.

Posted by Michael at 10:27 AM | Link | Comments (1)

December 21, 2006

Ros-Lehtinen Caught on Tape

Think Progress, Congresswoman Caught In Lie Over Castro Assassination Claim details how my Congressperson has, it seems, been caught in a bare-faced lie.

She says a video tape was doctored to make it look like she was calling for Castro's assassination when in fact she wasn't. The filmmakers have released the raw video which supports their story not hers and asked her to retract the slur on their integrity. We're still waiting on that one.

Anyone who's followed Ros-Lehtinen's career will know that the anti-Castro remarks seem in character (and are probably shared by a substantial fraction of her electors).

I wish I thought this flap will affect her re-election chances in '08, but I doubt it.

Posted by Michael at 07:05 PM | Link | Comments (0)

December 11, 2006

My Congressional Representative is Such a Source of Pride

This is what my Congressional representative is like:
In a new documentary, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) — who was “recently tapped to become the top Republican on the House International Relations Committee” — talks casually on video “about how proud she is to represent Cuban ‘freedom fighters’ living in exile in Miami and on the island.” She then says, “I welcome the opportunity of having anyone assassinate Fidel Castro and any leader who is oppressing the people.”

See it on You Tube.

Posted by Michael at 04:39 PM | Link | Comments (9)

October 15, 2006

Dave Patlak for Congress

I live in Florida's 18th District. Our current representative is dire: one of Bush's strongest supporters in Congress -- and the district is carefully drawn to be one of the safest GOP seats in the nation. As the local media consider the race a done deal for the incumbent, they haven't covered it much...which makes theirs a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Our local part of the 50-state strategy is Dave Patlak, a 25-year veteran of the Coast Guard, a candidate who knows the district.

If you live near me, vote for Dave. Wherever you live, consider making an online donation. If you live in the area, you can volunteer for the campaign:

Democrat Dave Patlak for Congress Campaign HQ
735 Second Street #6
Miami Beach, FL 33139
Phone: (305) 531-1513

And check out Dave's blog.

Posted by Michael at 12:00 AM | Link | Comments (1)

December 09, 2005

Ros-Lehtinen Drops Another Political Slur

The Representative elected from the district I live in said yesterday that some (unspecified, in the way of many slurs) Democrats are traitors and secretly hope that our soldiers are killed in battle. Yes, although not her exact words, that is the exact meaning of what she said.

Bid for Prewar Iraq Files Raises Political Heat - New York Times: Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Republican of Florida, declared that some Democrats "do not want us to win in Iraq" for fear that it would give the administration a political victory.
Will no one serious come forward to rid us of this embarrassing incumbent? It would be an uphill race, but she is much more vulnerable and unpopular around here than she seems.

Previous relevant post: Who Will Run Against Ros-Lehtinen? (All Politics Is Local).

Posted by Michael at 09:13 AM | Link | Comments (5)

November 23, 2005

FL-18 Still Awaits Its Knight in Shining Armor

Lamentably Florida's 18th congressional district remains one of several state congressional races in which no Democrat has yet announced plans to run. See the list of congressional races compiled by the DCCC.

Posted by Michael at 05:01 PM | Link | Comments (2)

November 21, 2005

Florida's 18th Congressional District

I suppose that Florida's 18th Congressional District, which I inhabit, is not the strangest shaped one in the US, but it surely has to be up there. Its odd shape is not especially visible from the map provided on Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's web page, but it can be fully appreciated thanks to the Google map of Florida's 18th Congressional District provided by GovTrack.

Posted by Michael at 12:00 AM | Link | Comments (1)

October 14, 2005

Who Will Run Against Ros-Lehtinen? (All Politics Is Local)

There's a Late Byzantine feel to America these days: corrupt leaders stealing what they can, infrastructure crumbling, people dying in the (flooded) street, distant losing wars far away, governmental torture, waste, fraud, internecine disputes among the leadership.

When the levee broke, and any illusion one might have of even minimal competence in this administration washed away with it. I lead a privileged life, not least because I have tenure in a law school, which gives me both the time and the obligation to think about how we can organize our society so we live better. But it doesn't take that luxury to understand just how badly the United States has been abused by the people currently in power. How, I keep wondering, can I most effectively stand up for decency, for a government that makes lives better, that protects the weak, children, the elderly, that stands for something better than torture and cutting taxes on multi-millionaires today so that we can incur more debts that inevitably will become taxes borne by my children tomorrow?

I live far from the centers of power. How then to respond to this mess in Washington from out here in the hinterland? I think it's primarily a function of temperament. Some people will dream or plot revolution; some will join cults. Many will say it's hopeless and cultivate their gardens. Others will turn to drink. And some others will do something a little more productive. Me, I'm a pretty moderate and bourgeois guy at heart. The system hasn't been bad to me, and while I see warts in it, I also see virtue. I especially like American ideals of freedom and justice, of a government of laws, of protection of liberty (and yes, thus of property), of a mutual commitment to live and let live so that each can engage in his or her own pursuit of happiness. It's our leadership's colossal failure to live up to those ideals, to be even half of what we could be, to instead be such a lead weight on the nation, that gets me so steamed. I'm not your cultist or revolutionary. I don't have a green thumb. And I can't really hold my liquor all that well. That leaves electronic pamphleteering and organizing.

I'm aware that one of the biggest reasons we're in such a pickle is that we have serious problems with our electoral system. It's not just that money talks much louder than it should; nor is it simply that most of the major electronic media outlets are owned by radical right-wingers. Several are transparently managed in a politically biased manner which relies on a combination of lies, distraction. and suppression of inconvenient people and facts. Combine all that with the terrible voting system and, perhaps worst of all, serious systematic gerrymandering and you get the Congress we have: a body in which the large majority of members are elected for life, or nearly so, at least so long as they truckle properly to the sources of re-election cash.

But if you persist in caring, and you won't drown your sorrows in a bottle, nor host clandestine meetings, politics is the only game in town.

The great Saul Alinsky instructed us that if you want to change something you start where you are. Where I am is Florida's 18th Congressional District--the district once represented by the late great Claude Pepper. And indeed, the situation is especially dire here in Florida. (And I don't just mean the voting machine problem.) Although we are the classic 50/50 state when it comes to the voting public, we are anything but a 50/50 state in either our congressional delegation or in the state house. No, the district lines are artfully done, and ensure a substantial Republican majority in the statehouse and in Congress (only the US Senate delegation is 50/50 -- can't gerrymander that!). Plus, the Democratic Party in Florida is not as aggressive as it could be: it frequently doesn't even field a candidate against entrenched incumbents in safe seats.

Under Florida law, if no one files to run against incumbents, they are declared the winner when the filing period closes. That of course means they are free to raise money and campaign for other candidates, and also can save a fortune in election expenses. Not fielding even a sacrificial lamb weakens the rest of the Democratic ticket. Our local incumbent ran unopposed in 1998, and in fact hasn't had a really serious opponent since 1992.

So I began researching what it takes to run for Congress, just because it would be nice to know, in case I ever ran into a likely candidate.

The short answer as to what is needed -- besides, perhaps, taking leave of your senses -- is that it takes either about $9,000 to pay the filing fees, or about 5,000 signatures on petitions from voters in this district (1% of 250,000 registered voters = 2,500 times the double you need to make sure enough of the signatures are valid).1 What that gets you here in Florida's 18th congressional district, is the chance to run in a district that starts in Key West, a long drive south, and runs in a little strip right through my neighborhood in Coral Gables, continuing on to points north of me. Republicans outnumber Democrats among registered voters by about 2:1. Cuban-Americans, traditionally a seriously Republican constituency, predominate politically. Even though we have more than 100,000 social security recipients, even though our Congressperson couldn't bring herself to criticize Bush's plans to gut Social Security, this district is not likely to make anyone's top-ten list of likely Democratic pickups. Indeed, if it's not on the top-ten list of safe Republican seats, it must surely be close to it.

To ice the cake, incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, has about $1.3 million in campaign cash on hand according to the most recent report that I could find online. She is also reputed to be the Representative most favored by the Church of Scientology, an endorsement that presumably ensures a national fund-raising base and a cadre of very highly motivated campaign operatives.

In the last election, one Samuel Martin Sheldon (this one?) ran as the Democratic candidate. He raised $11,883, spent $11,882. (I wonder what happened to that last dollar?) He got 35% of the vote. Ileana raised $876,886 and spent $859,083, leaving her $1.5 million on hand at the time (wonder what she's done with that $200,000 since then?).

I read that the Democratic establishment wants to make it a race in every congressional district. I think that's a good idea, a great idea, a necessary idea. I volunteer to help the right candidate. I wonder, though, who if anyone is planning to run? Are the local and national Democratic political establishments working to find a credible candidate to take on the job of sacrificial lamb? What sort of resources the DCCC. and the DNC are offering to bring to the table if we had a good candidate? Howard Dean, are you listening?

Not that we're going to win -- but maybe we could make her spend it all this time.


1. There is an alternate, less expensive, procedure by which you file to be a write-in candidate. Florida has a really bizarre rule that votes for write-in candidates will be ignored unless the candidate has filed by the same deadline as a regular candidate. Write-in candidates who file don't get on the ballot, but they get votes for them recorded. The major consequence of having a write-in candidate file to run is that it prevents an otherwise unopposed candidate from being declared the winner without the formality of an election. But since the otherwise unopposed candidate is still the only name on the ballot, the election remains little more than a formality.

Posted by Michael at 12:00 PM | Link | Comments (13)
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