It’s Long (Awaited), But Will It Be Long-Lasting?

Text of California Supreme Court's lengthy 4-3 decision stating that same-sex couples have a state right to marry.

I think there's a very real likelihood this could get overturned at the polls in the next election. Even so, I would imagine — but haven't researched the question — that marriages entered into before that happens would remain valid.

Expect the price of flowers to be high in June.

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7 Responses to It’s Long (Awaited), But Will It Be Long-Lasting?

  1. someone says:

    I wonder how this will impact the November elections.

    On the one hand, I’d say it helps McCain. (“Activist judges . . .”)

    On the other hand, it’s a Republican-appointed court, which lessens the impact.

  2. I would think that this will be overturned in the polls. As far as the legality of marriages entered into before it’s overturned…. that’s a good question. I will look into that.

    George

  3. PHB says:

    Its a disaster for the GOP. They don’t want to bring up the social wedge issues this election cycle. Their base no longer jumps to attention and comes out to vote on them.

    The math of wedge issues is that they usually cost you support, but they work by shrinking the turnout on both sides, but less so for the side raising the wedge issue.

    I am not in the tank for Obama, not by a long way. But I think the GOP would be fools to try raising a wedge issue against him. Its a gift for him, he can turn the wedge round.

    McCain is not going to win California in any case. If the wedge helps the GOP increase turnout it will be limited to California. But the negative of relying on yet another hate-plank will be a global effect.

    I think the attempt to overturn it will fail. People like Rosie O’Donnell more than they like Jerry Falwell and his ilk.

  4. wcw says:

    California’s electorate is a lot more conservative than the caricature would have it, but I don’t think we overturn it. Wishful thinking, perhaps, but if I’m wrong, we’ll just have to roll that error back in ten or twenty years.

  5. negligence says:

    WCW, the California electorate is a lot more conservative. Any idea why that is not reflected in its leaders and judges? I’ve never understood that.

    George

  6. dfb says:

    I think there is a 50/50 chance the amendment banning gay marriage will pass. Polls often put the public sentiment at 50/50. Which side wins often depends on who is polling. The key is that the amendment only needs 50% +1 vote to pass. It will be close.

    Californians, on the whole, are fairly moderate. The leftness of our elected representatives has to do with a deal the Republicans and Democrats made to draw district boundaries to make each district “safe.” As a result, both parties drifted to the extremes and moderates slowly left our legislature. Low voter turnout has compounded the issue and those safe districts often end up electing representatives further to the extremes of the party.

    If you need any convincing there is a strong socially conservative group in California you don’t need to look far. The referendum just quashed by the state supreme court was passed at a 60-40 vote. Strange as it might seem, but a large black voter turnout for Obama may be a factor in a vote for an amendment. The black community in California generally polls lower in its support for gay marriage. I can’t find the numbers right now but I seem to remember it being much lower, as in the 30% range.

  7. dfb says:

    I think there is a 50/50 chance the amendment banning gay marriage will pass. Polls often put the public sentiment at 50/50. Which side wins often depends on who is polling. The key is that the amendment only needs 50% +1 vote to pass. It will be close.

    Californians, on the whole, are fairly moderate. The leftness of our elected representatives has to do with a deal the Republicans and Democrats made to draw district boundaries to make each district “safe.” As a result, both parties drifted to the extremes and moderates slowly left our legislature. Low voter turnout has compounded the issue and those safe districts often end up electing representatives further to the extremes of the party.

    If you need any convincing there is a strong socially conservative group in California you don’t need to look far. The referendum just quashed by the state supreme court was passed at a 60-40 vote. Strange as it might seem, but a large black voter turnout for Obama may be a factor in a vote for an amendment. The black community in California generally polls lower in its support for gay marriage. I can’t find the numbers right now but I seem to remember it being much lower, as in the 30% range.

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